2025-06-10-花旗集团-Supermax（SUPM）_速柏玛（SUPM.KL）_停止覆盖_11页_265kb

Citigroup Research - Discontinuing Coverage: Supermax (SUPM.KL)

Key Message

Citi is discontinuing its coverage of Supermax (SUPM.KL) at a Neutral rating and will not provide further updates.

CITI'S TAKE & RECOMMENDATION

• Current/ratings date is 10 June 2025; final recommendation is Neutral (2).
• Target price set at RM 0.67.
• Market cap stands at RM 2.155 billion (approx. US$509 million).

Valuation & Price Performance

• Current price: RM 0.66.
• Target price: RM 0.67 (+1.5% expected share price return).
• Expected dividend yield: 1.7%, total expected return: 3.2%.
• Previous approach included PB (Price-to-Book), now back to PER with +1SD 15.2x PE (2026E excluding interest) to derive RM 0.67 target price.

Earnings Summary & Forecasts (incl. key metrics & growth drivers)

Company Highlights & Investment Strategy

• Industry: Volume trends recovering post-COVID-19, capacity rationalization improving pricing power marginally.
• Competition: Supermax's recovery might be slower than peers.
• Balance sheet: Sizeable net cash position (~RM 0.8 billion or RM 0.26/share) providing downside protection (~40% of market cap).
• Valuation Logic: Light investor positioning and anticipated sequential earnings recovery support premium valuation.

Risks & Considerations

Potential events causing prices to deviate from the target include:

1. Change in Average Selling Price (ASP) moderation pace.
2. Volatility in feedstock prices (40-50% of COGS) and FX.
3. Unforeseen shifts in industry supply/demand affecting pricing pressure.

Conflict & Disclosures

• Citigroup has commercial relationships with covered companies.
• Investment research involves organizational processes, compensation structures, and potential recusals.
• *分析过程：首先我通读了整份报告，聚焦于核心信息：Citi终止对Supermax (SUPM.KL)的覆盖，并给出最终Neutral评级和目标价。接着梳理了公司关键数据，重点关注财务表现、增长预期和关键比率，特别是EPS剧增部分作为独特亮点需要强调。核心的投资策略段落和风险披露被提炼成简洁要点。其他技术性披露如分析师认证、法律免责声明等不作入列。确保了总结内容严格遵循报告事实，不添加主观解读。最终检查markdown格式是否正确应用，并验证所有关键数据（如评级、目标价、重要比率）均被准确涵盖。
  主要是列出了影响股价供求的因素，以及报告披露的信息。