2025-06-10-花旗集团-华纳兄弟探索公司（WBD）_华纳兄弟探索公司（WBD.O）_拆分增加并购灵活性；重申买入_14页_352kb

Summary of Warner Bros Discovery (WBD) Research Report

Key Announcement

• Warner Bros Discovery Inc (WBD.O) announced a planned split into two public companies by mid-2026: Global Networks (including Discovery+) and Streaming & Studios.
• The company also initiated a cash tender offer and consent solicitation for outstanding bonds, with an aggregate purchase price of ~$14.6 billion, aimed at retiring ~$17.7 billion in principal.

Analyst Recommendation

• Rating: Buy (reiterated) – based on increased M&A optionality and sum-of-the-parts valuation.
• Target Price: US$14.00 (up from current ~US$10.01).
• Expected Performance: Potential 39.9% upside from current levels.
• Previous Price: US$10.01 on 10 June 2025.

Valuation and Justification

• Sum-of-the-Parts Value: ~US$14 per share (~US$11 for Studios & Streaming; ~US$3 for Global Networks).
• Upside Factors: Debt tender offer savings of ~US$1.20 per share and increased M&A optionality (~US$2.30 per share).
• Downside Factors: Higher interest expense (~US$1.55 per share), dis-synergies (~US$0.60 per share), and index rebalancing effects.
• Financial Analysis: WBD trades below target price, with projected EPS improving (e.g., 2025E: -US$0.37 per share) and EV-EBITDA multiple of ~7.0x.

Risks

• Execution Risks: Complexity of separation, high upfront investment, and potential FCF constraints.
• Market Risks: Decline in ad revenues, acceleration of cord cutting impacting affiliate fees.
• Entity-Specific Risks: Citigroup's ownership and potential conflicts of interest.

Conclusion

• The split increases M&A likelihood and valuation upside, though near-term factors like interest expense may cause volatility. WBD equity is attractive at current levels due to undervalued assets.