2024-06-02-UNDP-纳米比亚推动可持续发展目标_开启可持续发展目标加速发展的新途径（英）_47页_5mb

UNDP (2024). Namibia SDG Push Framework: Unlocking New Pathways to SDG Acceleration.

Background

Namibia faces severe economic, environmental, and global health crises that threaten its progress toward achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Key challenges include slow economic growth, rising poverty, youth unemployment, and increasing inequality. From 2016 to 2020, Namibia’s economy experienced near-zero growth due to declining mineral demand and drought, followed by an 8% contraction in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. These issues have exacerbated poverty (poverty headcount rose to 19.5%), unemployment (34.5%), and Namibia’s Human Development Index (HDI) dropped to 0.402 in 2020.

SDG Push Framework

The SDG Push framework is a structured, participatory approach to identify evidence-based policy actions (SDG Accelerators) to accelerate progress toward key SDGs, particularly those related to poverty (SDG 1), inequality (SDG 10), and employment (SDG 8). Led by the government’s National Planning Commission (NPC) with technical support from UNDP, the framework involves:

1. Scoping: Identifying priorities using data visualization and machine learning.
2. Acceleration Dialogues: Consulting stakeholders to propose policy interventions.
3. Modelling: Assessing economic impacts of policies using CGE and microsimulation models.
4. Sustainable Finance: Estimating costs and feasibility of implementing policies.

Key Findings

• Business-as-Usual (BAU) Scenario: Without intervention, Namibia would see minimal progress on most SDGs by 2030 due to slow economic growth, high unemployment, and increasing inequality.

• SDG Accelerators Proposed:

  • Stimulating Inclusive Economic Growth (SIEG): Increases public investment in key sectors to boost GDP growth and reduce unemployment. Could raise real GDP growth from 2.7% to 7.0% and lower the unemployment rate from 30.6% to 10.1% by 2030.

  • Targeted Social Protection Programme (TSPP): Provides cash transfers to reduce poverty and inequality. Could reduce the poverty headcount from 18.3% to 5.0% by 2030.

  • Combination of SIEG and TSPP: Achieves significant progress on economic growth, employment, and poverty, but minimal effect on inequality. The indicative cost of this combination is 4.6% of GDP.

Conclusion

The SDG Push framework provides a roadmap for Namibia to reverse development challenges and accelerate SDG achievement through targeted policy interventions. However, addressing inequality and securing sustainable financing are crucial for long-term success.