20150909-Maybank_KERPL-Regional_Oil___Gas_11页_781kb
报告摘要
Regional Oil & Gas Summary
Core Content
This document provides an overview of the regional oil and gas market as of 8 September 2015, highlighting price movements, key news headlines, and analyst reports for various Asian countries and companies. It includes price data for major crude oil and gas benchmarks, as well as evaluations of companies in the oil and gas sector, including ratings and financial indicators.
Oil & Gas Price Movements
- Brent Crude Oil: Increased by 4.0% to USD49.52/b.
- WTI Crude Oil: Decreased by 0.2% to USD45.94/b.
- Dubai Fateh Spot: Down 0.9% to USD46.95/b.
- China Daqing Spot: Down 10.2% to USD39.12/b.
- NYMEX Henry Hub: Up 1.8% to USD2.71/MMBtu.
- LNG Northeast Asia CFR: Down 0.9% to USD7.55/MMBtu.
- Singapore 92 RON Spot: Up 0.2% to USD60.26/b.
- Gasoil 500 ppm SG Spot: Down 0.5% to USD63.30/b.
- 3.5% 180cst Fuel SG Spot: Down 1.6% to USD244.23/mt.
- Gold: Up 0.2% to USD1,121.55/Oz.
- USD-CNY: No change at 6.37.
- DJI: Up 2.4% to 16,492.68.
- S&P 500: Up 2.5% to 1,969.41.
Key News Headlines
- Gundlach on Oil Rally: Jeffrey Gundlach of DoubleLine Capital suggests that the oil rally would be short-lived due to supply and demand imbalances, with crude prices potentially reaching $55 a barrel.
- Indonesia Rejoining Opec: Indonesia is close to rejoining Opec, with an official request submitted for approval at the December meeting.
- IEA on Under-Investment: The IEA warns that low oil prices risk under-investment in conventional oil supply in non-OPEC countries, which could increase OPEC's market power.
- Noble Energy Boosts Production: Noble Energy increased its production forecast by 10,000 boe/d due to improved infrastructure at its Wattenberg field.
- Woodside and Oil Search Merger Talks: Woodside proposed an $8 billion all-share takeover of Oil Search, with the latter reviewing the offer.
Analyst Reports
China
-
PetroChina: SELL
- 1H15 net profit: CNY25.4b, down 63% YoY.
- Earnings expected to drop drastically in 2H15 and 2016 due to lower oil prices.
- Estimates and rating under review.
-
China Petroleum & Chemical Corp: HOLD
- 1H15 net profit: CNY25.4b, down 22% YoY, representing 68% of FY15 consensus forecast.
- Earnings expected to drop in 2H15 and 2016 due to lower oil prices.
- Estimates and rating under review.
-
CNOOC: BUY
- 1H15 profit: CNY14.7b, representing 57% of FY15 consensus forecast.
- Strong volume growth and cost control.
- Earnings expected to drop in 2H15 and 2016 due to lower oil prices.
- Estimates and rating under review.
Malaysia
- Malaysia Oil & Gas: NEUTRAL
- Challenging times ahead for jack-up rig operators due to weak utilization and DCRs.
- Earnings cut for Perisai and UMWOG by 39% to 142%.
- Target prices lowered to MYR0.22 and MYR0.80.
Philippines
- Petron Corp: BUY
- Phoenix Petro: BUY
Thailand
- PTT Global Chemical PCL: BUY
- PTT PCL: BUY
- Thai Oil PCL: SELL
Vietnam
- PetroVietnam Gas: BUY
Asian Oil & Gas Valuations
| Company | Ticker | Maybank KE Rating | Price 7-Sep | Target Price | Mkt Cap (USDb) | 90D T/O (USDm) | PER (2015E) | PER (2016E) | EV/EBITDA (2015E) | EV/EBITDA (2016E) | ROE % | P/BV (x) | Yield (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PetroChina - H | 857 HK | Sell | 5.90 | 8.30 | 237.3 | 102.8 | 17.2 | 11.0 | 6.0 | 5.0 | 4.3 | 0.7 | 2.6 |
| Sinopec - H | 386 HK | Hold | 4.95 | 7.70 | 91.9 | 84.3 | 13.7 | 9.9 | 6.0 | 5.3 | 5.7 | 0.8 | 3.5 |
| CNOOC LTD | 883 HK | Buy | 9.02 | 16.80 | 52.0 | 93.5 | 13.2 | 8.3 | 4.0 | 3.2 | 6.4 | 0.8 | 2.6 |
Asian Oil & Gas Service Valuations
| Company | Ticker | Maybank KE Rating | Price 7-Sep | Target Price | Mkt Cap (USDb) | 90D T/O (USDm) | PER (2015E) | PER (2016E) | EV/EBITDA (2015E) | EV/EBITDA (2016E) | ROE % | P/BV (x) | Yield (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gas Malaysia | GMB MK | Buy | 2.06 | 2.65 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 21.4 | 21.4 | 11.9 | 11.5 | 12.2 | 2.6 | 4.7 |
| Petronas Gas | PTG MK | Hold | 21.36 | 24.00 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 23.4 | 23.1 | 14.0 | 13.7 | 16.7 | 3.8 | 3.0 |
| Petron Corp | PCOR PM | Buy | 7.40 | 11.25 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 16.9 | 10.0 | 8.0 | 7.1 | 4.4 | 0.8 | 0.7 |
| Phoenix Petroleum | PNX PM | Buy | 3.20 | 4.75 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 5.4 | 4.8 | 7.5 | 6.8 | 11.6 | 0.6 | 3.1 |
| PTT Global Chemical PCL | PTTGC TB | Buy | 55.8 | 87.00 | 7.0 | 24.7 | 9.2 | 8.1 | 6.0 | 5.6 | 11.4 | 1.0 | 5.0 |
| Thai Oil PCL | TOP TB | Sell | 48.8 | 65.00 | 2.8 | 8.2 | 8.2 | 8.6 | 6.0 | 5.9 | 13.5 | 1.1 | 5.1 |
| PetroVietnam Gas | GAS VN | Buy | 46,400 | 92,000 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 10.1 | 10.8 | 4.8 | 4.7 | 23.3 | 2.2 | 7.5 |
Notes
- NR: Not Rated
- UR: Under Review
- **All forward-looking estimates and multiples for companies not under Maybank Kim Eng's coverage, including companies currently under review, are from Bloomberg consensus.
- Average multiples and yields are weighted by market capitalization.
展开完整摘要
试读结束，高清完整版pdf/doc/ppt,请点下载
