亚开行-2021年亚洲发展展望（ADO）更新：亚洲农业转型（英）-2021.9-241页_4mb

Summary of Asian Development Outlook 2021 Update – Transforming Agriculture in Asia

Core Content

The Asian Development Outlook 2021 Update – Transforming Agriculture in Asia provides an analysis of the economic outlook for developing Asia, with a focus on the transformation of agriculture in response to multiple challenges. The report highlights the uneven recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic, the importance of sustainable food production, and the need for innovation and policy reform to support agricultural development in the region.

Main Views

Regional Economic Outlook

• Growth Projections: Developing Asia is expected to grow at 7.1% in 2021 and 5.4% in 2022, a slower rate than previously forecasted.
• Uneven Recovery: Growth paths are diverging due to differences in pandemic control and vaccine rollouts. Countries with effective containment and strong vaccination programs (e.g., China, South Korea, Hong Kong) are recovering faster.
• Inflation: Inflation remains moderate at 2.2% in 2021 and is expected to rise to 2.7% in 2022. Price pressures are mainly due to rising energy and food prices, though some economies experience lower inflation due to weak demand.
• Exports: Exports remain above prepandemic levels, driven by strong global demand, especially for goods and electronics related to the pandemic.
• Remittances: Remittances increased in the first quarter of 2021, but international tourism remains depressed.
• Monetary and Fiscal Policies: Supportive fiscal and monetary policies continue to aid recovery, with central banks maintaining low or negative real interest rates.

Risks to Recovery

• Main Risks: Renewed waves of the pandemic, new variants, and waning vaccine effectiveness are key threats.
• Other Risks: Geopolitical tensions, financial market volatility, and climate change are also significant concerns.
• Climate Impact: Extreme weather events are increasing in frequency and intensity, affecting agricultural productivity and food security.

Key Information on Transforming Agriculture in Asia

Emerging Challenges

• Changing Demand: Food demand is increasing and shifting toward more resource-intensive products like animal-based foods and seafood.
• Changing Demographics: Rural populations are shrinking, aging, and becoming more female-dominated, which affects labor availability and productivity.
• Changing Environment: Agriculture is increasingly vulnerable to climate change and unsustainable farming practices.

Innovation and Productivity

• Technology Adoption: Improved technologies and practices, such as site-specific nutrient management and integrated pest management, are helping to increase productivity while reducing environmental impact.
• Mechanization: Access to agricultural machinery is being enhanced through innovative arrangements, especially for smallholder farmers.
• Digital Tools: Digital technologies are improving access to market and technical information, facilitating inclusive growth and reducing food service disruptions during the pandemic.

Sustainability and Support Systems

• Aquaculture Expansion: Aquaculture is growing rapidly and is expected to meet rising seafood demand. However, sustainability issues such as mangrove destruction and water salinization must be addressed.
• Insurance and Early Warning Systems: Crop insurance and early warning systems are critical for reducing climate risk and supporting farmers. Only four countries in developing Asia have fully operational national crop insurance programs.
• Value Chains: Diversification into high-value crops is increasing, supported by contract farming and evolving value chains. High-value crops now account for 32% of agricultural production value, surpassing cereals at 26%.
• Policy Reform: Agricultural policies should shift from traditional production support to market-oriented approaches that promote innovation, sustainability, and better nutrition.

Economic Trends and Prospects by Subregion

Conclusion

The report emphasizes the need for a transformation in Asia's agricultural systems to address the challenges of changing demand, demographics, and environmental fragility. It advocates for innovation, market-oriented policies, and better support systems to ensure food security, sustainable growth, and resilience against climate and pandemic-related shocks.