亚开行-旅游业对区域经济增长的影响：全球价值链视角（英）-2022.1-30页_1mb

Summary: Impact of Tourism on Regional Economic Growth - A Global Value Chain Perspective

Core Content

This paper analyzes the impact of tourism on regional economic growth from a global value chain (GVC) perspective, using the multiregional input-output (MRIO) model. It focuses on Thailand as a case study to illustrate how tourism influences not only the domestic economy but also its interconnectedness with other economies through trade and production linkages.

Main Points

• Tourism's Economic Impact: Tourism has a significant economic impact, contributing 19.7% to Thailand's GDP and 21.4% to employment in 2019.
• Globalization and Tourism: Tourism products are often imported and exported as intermediates, indicating the industry's integration into the global economy.
• MRIO Model: The MRIO model is used to capture the flows of tourism products across economies and to measure the economic impact more accurately than the traditional IO model.
• Multiplier Analysis: Multipliers are used to assess the direct, indirect, and induced effects of tourism spending on output and value added. The study distinguishes between intra- and inter-regional multipliers.
• Linkages and Leakages: The paper explores backward and forward linkages to understand the interconnectedness of the tourism industry with other sectors, and leakages to identify economic outflows due to imports.
• GVC Participation Rates: Two key GVC indicators are introduced: backward GVC participation rate and forward GVC participation rate, which measure the share of intermediate imports and exports in the tourism industry's value chain.
• Comparative Advantage: The study introduces Traditional Revealed Comparative Advantage (TRCA) and New Revealed Comparative Advantage (NRCA) to assess the export performance and direct contribution of the tourism industry to the global economy.

Key Findings

Multiplier Analysis

• Tourism in Thailand generates significant economic output and value added.
• The output multiplier is calculated using the B matrix, where intraregional and interregional effects are identified.
• The value-added multiplier includes simple and total measures, with the total value-added multiplier accounting for direct, indirect, and induced effects.
• The type I multiplier highlights the relative magnitude of value added from tourism spending, measured as the ratio of total value added to direct value added per unit of demand.

Linkages

• Backward linkages measure how much domestic and foreign output is needed to support the tourism industry.
• Forward linkages measure how much output is generated in response to increased tourism production.
• Standardized backward and forward linkages are calculated by dividing total linkages by the average for all industries, indicating whether an industry is more or less interconnected.

Leakages

• Import leakage (or import multiplier) measures the foreign inputs required for each unit of tourism final demand.
• Backward leakage reflects the response of non-domestic sectors to tourism demand changes.
• Forward leakage captures the increase in primary inputs from the tourism industry to non-domestic sectors.

Global Value Chain

• Tourism is a final consumption industry, so its intermediate trade is more likely to be exported or imported.
• The backward and forward GVC participation rates show the degree of integration of the tourism industry into the global production network.
• Forward engagement indicates a more upstream position, while backward engagement suggests a more downstream position.
• NRCA provides a more accurate measure of direct contribution to tourism exports, as it excludes intermediate exports.

Methodology and Data

• The MRIO model includes 35 industries and 63 economies, with Thailand as the focus.
• Tourism-oriented industries (e.g., hotels and restaurants, air transport, community services) are used to represent the tourism industry, as TSA data is not readily available for all economies.
• Key indicators include multipliers, linkages, leakages, and GVC participation rates.
• The MRIO model allows for a more accurate assessment of tourism's export performance and economic impact by integrating global supply chain data.

Conclusion

• Tourism has a strong intra-spillover and domestic linkage, particularly with downstream industries.
• It has weaker connections with foreign industries in the GVC.
• The MRIO model offers a comprehensive framework to assess the economic contribution of tourism across regional and global dimensions.
• The findings provide empirical evidence for policy makers and regional organizations to better strategize tourism development and understand the global implications of local tourism activities.

Key Information

• Thailand is a major tourism destination with high economic contribution.
• The MRIO model captures interregional flows and GVC integration.
• Multiplier, linkage, and leakage analysis helps quantify tourism's economic effects.
• TRCA and NRCA are used to assess comparative advantage in tourism exports.
• The study highlights the importance of GVC in understanding the broader economic impact of tourism beyond the destination economy.