20180712-法国巴黎银行-South_Africa__Cool_heads_for_cooler_economy_9页_468kb

报告摘要

South Africa: Cool Heads for Cooler Economy Summary

Core Content

This report from BNP Paribas South Africa provides an analysis of inflation trends and the likely monetary policy response from the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) in the context of economic conditions in South Africa. The central theme is that while inflation is expected to rise in the short term, the SARB is unlikely to raise interest rates in the near future due to weak domestic demand and benign underlying inflation.

Main Points

June CPI Expected to Rise: The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June is forecast to increase to 4.8% y/y, up from 4.4% y/y in May. This is primarily due to rising fuel prices, which have increased by 7.3% since the last Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting on 24 May.
Fuel Prices as CPI Driver: Fuel prices are expected to grow by over 25% y/y in July and August, which will likely push CPI inflation higher in Q3, averaging 5.5%.
Food Price Dynamics: Although food prices are affected by second-round effects from higher fuel costs, there are favourable offsets:
- Maize surplus is helping to keep grain and cereal prices in check.
- Meat prices have started to decline due to herd restocking, which should ease CPI food inflation in the coming months.
Benign Core Inflation: Excluding volatile components like fuel and food, core inflation is expected to rise slightly to 4.5% y/y for 2018 and 5.0% y/y for 2019. However, it is unlikely to breach the 6% upper limit of the SARB’s inflation target band over the forecast period.
Weak Domestic Demand: Consumer demand and activity remain weak, with modest credit flow and lacklustre wage growth. The VAT increase and currency depreciation may lead to slight price increases, but significant inflationary pressures are not expected.
SARB Policy Outlook: The SARB is expected to maintain its policy rate at 6.50% for the medium term. While the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) may issue a more hawkish statement in response to higher inflation data, it is unlikely to trigger rate hikes given the weak economic outlook.
FMCI in a "Goldilocks" Zone: The Financial and Monetary Conditions Index (FMCI) suggests that financial conditions are neither too loose nor too tight, supporting the view that the SARB can remain cautious.
CPI Forecast Revisions: The report revises CPI forecasts only marginally, to 4.9% for 2018 and 5.2% for 2019. A quarterly peak in CPI inflation is expected in Q1 2019 at 5.6%, followed by a decline to below 5.0% in H2 2019.
Global Risks and Caution: A less favourable global environment for emerging markets may lead to more cautious statements from the SARB. The bank is likely to lower its GDP growth forecasts, from 1.7% for both 2018 and 2019.

Key Information

June CPI: Expected to rise to 4.8% y/y, with 0.6% m/m growth.
Fuel Price Impact: Fuel prices are the main driver of CPI inflation, expected to grow by over 25% y/y in July and August.
Food Prices: Remain moderately stable due to maize surplus and declining meat prices.
Core Inflation: Projected to increase to 4.5% y/y for 2018 and 5.0% y/y for 2019.
SARB Policy Rate: Likely to stay at 6.50% for the medium term.
FMCI: Indicates neutral financial and monetary conditions.
Consumer Confidence: Expected to be under pressure due to poor economic outcomes and wage stagnation.
Credit Flow: Remains weak, suggesting limited consumer spending power.
Global Outlook: More cautious due to emerging market risks and lower GDP growth expectations.

Charts Mentioned

Chart 1: Highlights the impact of fuel prices on CPI.
Chart 2: Shows food price trends, indicating modest inflation.
Chart 3: Reflects weak credit demand, consistent with low consumer spending.
Chart 4: Demonstrates the FMCI in a Goldilocks zone.

Conclusion

The report concludes that while inflation is expected to rise in the short term, the SARB is unlikely to raise rates. The economy remains weak, and the policy rate is expected to stay on hold. The SARB will likely issue a more hawkish communication but will not act decisively unless inflation breaches the 6% threshold, which is not anticipated in the near future.

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