20180828-法国巴黎银行-South_Africa__A_late_spring__8页_448kb

报告摘要

South Africa: A Late Spring Summary

Core Content

This report by Jeffrey Schultz, Senior Economist at BNP Paribas South Africa, provides an analysis of South Africa's economic performance in Q2 2018, focusing on GDP growth, investment climate, and trade dynamics. The key themes revolve around the weak performance of the primary sector, policy ambiguity, and the potential for a technical recession.

Main Views

Q2 GDP Growth

Expected Growth: Q2 GDP is projected to grow by 0.6% q/q (or +1.0% y/y), a modest improvement from Q1's 2.2% q/q contraction (or +0.8% y/y).
Expenditure Side: Despite the slight improvement, the overall expenditure side of the economy remains weak, primarily due to low investment.
Net Trade Contribution: The report highlights that net trade is expected to be a positive factor in Q2 GDP, with the trade account likely to move into surplus due to better freight statistics and currency weakness.
Current Account Deficit: The current account deficit is anticipated to narrow to 3.8% of GDP from 4.8% in Q1.

Investment Climate

Policy Ambiguity: Persistent policy uncertainty, especially regarding land reform and the mining charter, is hindering domestic investment.
Political Climate Impact: The political 'pop' that was expected to boost confidence and investment has not materialized, resulting in a sharp deterioration in Q3 investment ratings.
Chart 1: Illustrates the political constraints on domestic investment, showing a decline in investment ratings from Q1 to Q3.

Sectoral Analysis

Primary Sector Weakness: Agriculture and manufacturing continue to underperform, contributing to the overall weak economic activity.
Services Sector: The services sector, which accounts for nearly 38% of GDP, is identified as a wild card in the GDP data, with the potential to impact the overall economic outlook.
Retail and Government Services: These sub-sectors remain relatively resilient, as indicated by interim financial results from major retail banks and higher-than-expected government spending.

Key Information

Economic Outlook: The report suggests that economic growth remains uninspiring in Q2, and improvement is unlikely in the short term due to policy delays and uncertainty.
Downside Risks: Downside risks to the 2018 GDP forecast of 1.7% are increasing due to the delayed policy reforms.
Trade Dynamics: Export growth is expected to outpace import growth, driven by currency weakness and improved freight statistics, which could help mitigate external vulnerabilities.
Legal and Regulatory Context: The document includes legal notices and disclosures related to the non-independent nature of the research, conflicts of interest, and distribution restrictions in various jurisdictions, including the United States, UK, France, Germany, Belgium, Ireland, Italy, Netherlands, Portugal, and Spain.

Conclusion

Despite some positive indicators in net trade, the South African economy is expected to remain weak in Q2, with investment and domestic confidence still constrained by policy uncertainty and delayed reforms. The services sector remains a key uncertainty, and the political climate continues to negatively impact investment activity. Overall, the economic outlook for the year is cautious, with downside risks increasing.