2022-02-17-牛津经济研究院-US_Recovery_Tracker_regains_footing_as_Omicron_fades_3页_509kb

The US Recovery Tracker rose 1.4 percentage points to 96.3 in the week ending February 4, 2022, largely offsetting losses from the Omicron variant's impact. Key factors included stronger mobility driven by increased gasoline and public transit use, looser financial conditions due to reduced volatility, and improving health metrics as COVID cases fell. However, declines in demand, production, and employment restrained growth.

Among the tracker's components:

• Mobility (+4.7 pts to 94.0) saw its fourth consecutive weekly increase, primarily from higher gasoline demand and public transit volumes.
• Financial conditions (+4.3 pts to 98.7) eased due to reduced market volatility.
• Health conditions (+3.9 pts to 105.1) improved to a five-week high as case rates declined.
• Demand (-1.2 pts to 102.6) decreased amid lower mortgage applications and reduced retail spending.
• Production (-1.2 pts to 88.7) worsened with fewer business applications and closed small businesses.
• Employment (-1.8 pts to 89.0) fell to its lowest level since December, attributed to fewer small business employees working.

Thirty of the 50 State Recovery Trackers showed gains, with states on the west and east coasts leading improvements. The Pacific region saw the largest gains (+3.8 pts), followed by the East, while the South, Midwest, and Southwest & Mountain regions experienced slight declines or stagnation. A more hawkish Federal Reserve could tighten financial conditions, but not significantly impact growth.

Overall, the tracker suggests a stabilization as Omicron fades, with expectations for continued improvement in mobility and economic activity, barring new developments.