2022-03-03-牛津经济研究院-US_As_Omicron_fades,_Recovery_Tracker_gains_3页_500kb

Summary

The US Recovery Tracker increased to 98.4, the highest level in two months, as the Omicron variant faded and demand for services rose. Other contributing factors include stronger production, mobility, and activity. Employment weakened slightly, and financial conditions tightened modestly.

Regional variations show nearly all 50 states improved, with Pacific coast and Southwest & Mountains regions leading the gain. Texas, California, and other states in these areas saw significant advancements. The South and Midwest also gained ground, while the East had the smallest improvement.

Declining Covid cases boosted service consumption and mobility, supporting economic acceleration despite tighter financial conditions. The war in Ukraine is expected to increase market volatility and raise prices for oil, gas, grains, and metals, reinforcing inflationary pressures and complicating Federal Reserve efforts to control inflation.

The tracker signals sustained momentum into March, but supply chain issues and the war may introduce risks to growth, with inflation upside being more immediate concern.