2021-12-09-牛津经济研究院-US_Recovery_Tracker_drops_on_Omicron_and_seasonal_drags_3页_409kb
报告摘要
- 标题：Recovery Tracker dip due to Omicron and seasonal effects
- 核心：US Recovery Tracker fell 3.1ppts to 96.6 in late November, lowest since September, driven by Omicron variant news exacerbating seasonal Thanksgiving drag.
- 原因：50% decline linked to seasonality, 30% reversed by equity market rebound, leaving 20% real (reflects consumer caution amid worsening health issues).
- 经济前景：Economy grows strongly; 2022 real GDP projected at 4.4% (vs. 5.7% in 2021) assuming moderate Omicron impact and catch-up next year.
- 各地区：43 states saw declines; East and Midwest hardest hit ( -5.9ppt and -5.2ppt respectively), Pacific least affected (-1.1ppt). Mobility and production sections weakened, while demand remained strong.
- 健康风险：Omicron cases rising sharply, potentially moderating economy; however, recovery not expected to derail long-term growth.
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