2025-06-16-花旗集团-米尔罗斯地产（MRP）_米罗斯房产公司（MRP.N）_模型更新_11页_221kb

报告摘要

Millrose Properties (MRP.N) - Investment Analysis Summary

Date: June 16, 2025
Analyst: Nick Joseph
Recommendation: Buy
Target Price: US$30.00
Brief Insights: Citigroup Research updates its model to reflect revised 2025 earnings and operational assumptions. The target price is set at US$30.00, based on a 10.3% expected share price return and a 19.0% total return, with an 8.7% dividend yield forecast.

Key Changes:

2025 EPS estimate revised down from $2.39 to $2.31 Earnings per Share (EPS).
2026 EPS estimate increased from $2.77 to $2.84 Earnings per Share (EPS).

Financial Projections (in millions USD):

Year	Net Income (E)	Funds from Operations (FFO) (E)	Adjusted Funds from Operations (AFFO) (E)	NOI	EBITDA including associates
2025E	$383	$383	$383	$539	$433
2026E	$472	$472	$472	$678	$576
2027E	$487	$487	$487	$772	$656

Growth Metrics:

2025E: 25.7% NOI growth, 33.2% EBITDA growth.
FFO growth rate: 23.0%.

Valuation Ratios (as of target year):

2025E: P/FFO: 11.8x, Dividend Yield: 8.9%
2026E: P/FFO: 9.6x, Dividend Yield: 10.4%
Target valuation supports a 10.5x multiple on 2026 earnings.

Risks:

High trading history risk rating considered but not applied due to low leverage and strong collateral.
Specific risks: misaligned manager-interests from fee structure, potential land option terminations, founder's rights impacts, debt-equity ratio limit (<=1:1), and potential equity dilution.

Balance Sheet Highlights:

Total assets: $7.702B in 2025E, debt: $850M, liabilities: $1,827M.
Conservative debt levels; NO retained cash flow encourages equity-based growth.

Research Note: Citigroup’s analysis is based on book value, EPS multiples, and dividend yield. Regulatory disclosures, including conflicts of interest, are detailed but not summarized here.

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