2025-06-16-花旗集团-宾堡（BIMBOA）_宾堡（BIMBOA.MX）模型更新_12页_447kb

Citi Research Report Summary: BIMBOA.MX

1. Overall Rating and Target:

• Investment Rating: Neutral (Hold)
• New Target Price (TP): P$55.00 (down from previous P$62.00)
• Expected Price Return (12M): +6.7%
• Expected Dividend Yield: 2.1%
• Expected Total Return (12M): +8.9%
• Current Price: P$51.53
• Market Cap: P$222,038 million

2. Financial Performance & Forecasts (Key Updates):

• FY2025 EPS Estimate: Revised down by -64c to P$3.05.
• FY2026 EPS Estimate: Revised down by -57c to P$3.62.
• Key Forecast Points:
  • FY2024A Sales: P$407.6B | FY2025E Sales: P$432.0B (+6.0% YOY)
  • FY2025E EBITDA Adj: P$58.0B (+~13.3% PY2024A)
  • FY2025E Net Income: P$13.4B (+~3.7% PY2024A)
• Growth:
  • Top Line: Expected moderate growth in 2025 (+~1.7% YoY in Q1/2 Q2 reported).
  • Core NPAT/EPS Growth: Stronger sequential improvement expected into 2026 (+~7.0% YoY in Forecasted Adj. EPS for 2025E).

3. Valuation:

• Valuation Ratios (Recent):
  • PE: 16.9x (current forward)
  • EV/EBITDA Adj: 6.7x (forward)
• New Target Price Model: P$55.00 based on Discounted Cash Flow (DCF), using a weighted average cost of capital (WACC) of ~10.3% and a terminal growth rate of 1.3%. Implied EV/EBITDA multiple of ~7x (consistent with historical levels). Price upside for TP is ~6.7%.

4. Key Risk Factors:

1. Input Costs: Higher raw material prices (wheat, corn, sugar) and unfavorable FX.
2. Market Conditions: Lower demand for packaged bread in the US & Canada.
3. Operational: Distribution cost increases in the US; potential labor cost increases.
4. Macroeconomic: Slower economic growth in Mexico.

• Upward/downward stock movements possible depending on the magnitude of these factors relative to expectations.