2025-06-16-花旗集团-达美航空公司（DAL）_达美航空公司（DAL.N）模型更新_11页_345kb

Delta Air Lines (DAL.N) - Citi Research Model Update Summary

Key Points

• Recommendation: Buy (unchanged for Delta Air Lines).
• Forecast Adjustments: Incorporates slightly lower expected ASM growth and higher ex-fuel CASM, leading to revised 2025E EPS of $5.75 (from $5.92).
• Target Price: Remains at $62, with expected share price return of 31.8%.
• Valuation: Based on 10.5x 2025E EPS multiple, reflecting approximately 17% premium to long-term historical averages, considering network carriers' post-pandemic wallet share gains and strong free cash flow profile.
• Risks: Key risks include jet fuel price volatility, economic downturns (Delta's higher international exposure enhances cyclicality), labor disputes, and air traffic shocks. Delta-specific risks involve mean reversion in operating performance and higher capital requirements due to an older fleet, which may limit shareholder returns.
• Analyst: Stephen Trent.
• Financial Highlights: Reported and estimated EPS, revenue, and balance sheet metrics show revised numbers for 2025, with reduced net margins and increased financial leverage sensitivity.