2011年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Liberia_Seventh_Review_Under_the_Extended_Credit_Facility_Arrangement_66页_1mb

Summary of Liberia—Seventh Review Under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement

Core Content

The Seventh Review Under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) Arrangement for Liberia, conducted in September 2011 and finalized in November 2011, assessed the country's economic developments and policy implementation. The report highlights the country's progress in macroeconomic stability, fiscal and monetary reforms, and administrative improvements, while also identifying ongoing challenges and risks.

Main Points

Economic Overview

• GDP Growth: Robust growth in 2011–12 driven by increased rubber production and the resumption of iron-ore exports.
• Inflation: Rose temporarily above 10% in mid-2011 due to international food and fuel price increases, but is expected to moderate to 3% in 2012.
• Exchange Rate: Managed through foreign exchange auctions by the Central Bank of Liberia (CBL), with reserves stable at about 2.75 months of import cover.
• Refugees: 138,000 refugees from western Côte d'Ivoire remain in Liberia due to security issues.

Program Performance

• Performance Criteria: All criteria and targets through June 2011 were met.
• Structural Reforms: The extension of the ASYCUDA system to the Monrovia oil terminal and international airport was achieved, while other benchmarks are in progress.
• SOE Oversight: Delays in financial reporting by state-owned enterprises (SOEs) are being addressed, with reporting expected by March 2012.

Fiscal Policies

• FY2011 Budget: Improved revenue mobilization and capital spending execution, with tax revenue to GDP share increasing by 3.5 percentage points.
• FY2012 Budget: Includes a core and contingent budget to manage revenue uncertainty. Contingent budget is seen as a pragmatic tool but may lead to unrealistic expenditure expectations.
• Expenditure Priorities: Focus on health, education, and infrastructure, with a significant increase in the central government wage bill due to minimum wage hikes and salary restructuring.
• Revenue Code: Revised in November 2011, covering most major taxes and supporting fiscal sustainability.

Monetary and Financial Policies

• Monetization: Broad money and deposits are growing rapidly, with credit to the private sector also expanding.
• Banking System: Well-capitalized and liquid, but suffers from high non-performing loans (NPLs) and low profitability.
• Credit Risks: Remain high, requiring close monitoring. Banks are improving risk management, with new regulations and a fast-track commercial court.
• Financial Inclusion: Mobile banking and microfinance are expanding, with the CBL developing a regulatory framework for non-bank financial institutions.
• Safeguards: Strengthened, though formalization of rights and obligations with the IMF is still needed.

Administrative and Other Reforms

• Fiscal Reforms: Progress made, but more efforts are needed for SOE oversight.
• IT Systems: Treasury and tax administration IT systems are being launched, with customs automation expanding.
• Data Collection: National accounts data for 2008 was not published due to data gaps, but efforts to strengthen source data are underway with donor support.

External Policies

• Debt Strategy: Guidelines for SOE borrowing and government guarantees were finalized. Concessional credits and grants for projects like the Mount Coffee hydropower plant are being pursued.
• Tariff Adjustments: Phased adoption of ECOWAS common external tariff began, with rate reductions in FY2012 and increases planned for subsequent years.
• WTO Accession: Finalized in July 2011, marking progress in international trade relations.

Key Information

• Performance Against Program: Satisfactory, with all quantitative and structural benchmarks met or in progress.
• Risks Identified:
  • Global economic slowdown and commodity price weakness could impact growth.
  • Volatility in commodity prices and revenue uncertainty require stabilization mechanisms.
  • High wage growth is unsustainable and needs to be managed.
• Program Support:
  • Staff supports the FY2012 budget structure, including the use of a contingent budget.
  • Supports the rehabilitation of the Mount Coffee hydropower plant if financing terms are concessional and sustainable.
  • Advises on transitioning to medium-term budgeting to reduce volatility and improve fiscal planning.

Conclusion

The Seventh Review confirms that Liberia is on track with its ECF program, with notable achievements in fiscal and monetary stability, administrative reforms, and economic growth. However, the country faces ongoing challenges, including high NPLs, revenue uncertainty, and the need for better coordination in SOE oversight. Staff recommends continued efforts to improve financial sector stability, enhance fiscal transparency, and implement medium-term budgeting frameworks to support sustainable development.