2017年-世界发展银行全球_Country_Partnership_Framework_for_Republic_of_Guinea_Bissau_for_the_Period_FY18-FY21_95页_1mb

Summary of the World Bank Group Country Partnership Framework for Guinea-Bissau (FY18-FY21)

Core Content

This document outlines the World Bank Group (WBG) Country Partnership Framework (CPF) for Guinea-Bissau, covering the period from FY18 to FY21. It is the first comprehensive country strategy since 1997 and is informed by the 2016 Systematic Country Diagnostic (SCD), the 2015 Fragility Assessment, and the Completion and Learning Review (CLR). The CPF aims to support Guinea-Bissau in achieving sustainable poverty reduction and shared prosperity, despite the country's high political and institutional risks.

Main Views

• Political and Institutional Fragility: Guinea-Bissau has a history of political instability, including frequent coups and government changes. The state is perceived as illegitimate by many citizens due to weak institutions and limited presence outside the capital. Military involvement in politics and the economy is significant, and the justice system is underdeveloped.

• Economic Overview: The economy is heavily dependent on agriculture, particularly cashew nut production and export. Recent economic growth has been positive, averaging 4.1% annually from 2014 to 2016, driven by increased international demand for cashew nuts and favorable weather conditions. However, economic growth has been volatile and subject to political and fiscal risks.

• Poverty and Inequities: Poverty is widespread, especially in rural areas. The country's development agenda focuses on reducing rural inequities and improving access to basic services. Gender disparities further constrain poverty reduction efforts, as women face significant barriers in economic participation and access to resources.

• Fragility and Governance Challenges: Weak governance and rent-seeking behavior have led to a "rentier" economy where public resources are diverted to private gain. Institutional weaknesses include poor public financial management, weak tax systems, and lack of transparency. These issues have resulted in high levels of corruption and informality.

• CPF Objectives and Themes: The CPF emphasizes increased access to quality basic services, expanded economic opportunities, and enhanced resilience to shocks. Gender and governance are cross-cutting themes that will be integrated into all CPF objectives. The framework is selective and flexible, allowing for adjustments based on the Performance and Learning Review (PLR).

• Implementation Strategy: The CPF proposes innovative and strategic approaches to address implementation challenges, including a focus on rural and secondary cities, strengthening core state functions, and enhancing community engagement. The WBG will also increase its in-country presence to improve collaboration with development partners and UN agencies.

• Financial Management and Instruments: Under IDA 18, the national allocation for Guinea-Bissau is expected to almost double compared to IDA 17. The CPF plans to use IDA18 facilities, particularly the Regional Integration Window (RIW) and the Private Sector Window (PSW), and to expand resources through strategic trust funds and partnerships.

Key Information

• Country Context:

  • Population: ~1.8 million
  • Borders: Senegal to the north, Guinea to the south and east
  • Capital: Bissau
  • Membership: ECOWAS, WAEMU, CPLP
  • Language: Portuguese, Crioulo, and various native African languages
  • Religion: African traditional religions, Islam, and Christianity

• Economic Indicators (as of April 30, 2017):

  • Real GDP growth: 5.1% in 2017
  • Per Capita GDP: ~USD 2.6 (2017)
  • Inflation: 2.6% in 2017
  • Fiscal deficit: 4.2% of GDP in 2016
  • Public debt: ~48% of GDP

• Challenges:

  • Political instability and frequent government changes
  • Weak governance and institutional capacity
  • High levels of corruption and rent-seeking
  • Limited access to basic services and high costs of energy and water
  • Poor public financial management and outdated tax systems

• CPF Focus Areas:

  • Basic Services: Improve access to electricity, water, and sanitation
  • Economic Opportunities: Promote private sector development and SME growth
  • Resilience: Strengthen the country's ability to withstand economic and climate shocks

• Strategic Initiatives:

  • Use of result-based instruments to strengthen state functions
  • Community-driven development (CDD) to enhance accountability and service delivery
  • Collaboration with UN agencies and other development partners
  • Focus on regional integration and private sector support through IDA18

• Risk Management:

  • High political and economic risks due to fragility
  • Need for flexibility and mid-strategy adjustments
  • Use of the Systematic Operations Risk-Rating Tool (SORT) to assess and manage risks

• Funding and Instruments:

  • CPF financial envelope includes IDA, IFC, and MIGA instruments
  • Emphasis on the use of the Regional Integration Window (RIW) and Private Sector Window (PSW)
  • Strategic use of trust funds and partnerships to expand resources

Conclusion

The CPF for Guinea-Bissau (FY18-FY21) is a strategic and selective approach aimed at addressing the country's deep-rooted challenges and supporting its development agenda. It recognizes the need for flexibility, innovation, and strong partnerships to achieve sustainable poverty reduction and shared prosperity in a highly fragile environment.