2022-03-20-全球石油与天然气行业-全球集成油_风暴中的港口_37页_921kb

Summary of Global Integrated Oils Analysis

Core Content

This report provides an analysis of the global integrated oils sector, focusing on the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on oil and gas prices, the resulting changes in company valuations and target prices, and the outlook for free cash flow and distribution yields.

Main Points

Market Outlook and Price Assumptions

• The Russia-Ukraine conflict has fundamentally altered the outlook for oil and gas markets, leading to structurally tighter supply and higher prices.
• HSBC has raised its oil price assumptions:
  • Brent: USD105/b for 2022e, USD95/b for 2023e, USD85/b for 2024e.
  • WTI: USD102/b for 2022e, USD92/b for 2023e, USD82/b for 2024e.
  • US Henry Hub gas: USD3.75/mBtu for 2022e, USD3.25/mBtu for 2023e, USD3.25/mBtu for 2024e.
  • Euro spot gas: USD24.00/mBtu for 2022e, USD17.00/mBtu for 2023e, USD12.00/mBtu for 2024e.
  • Asia spot LNG: USD25.13/mBtu for 2022e, USD18.00/mBtu for 2023e, USD13.00/mBtu for 2024e.
  • Oil-linked LNG: USD12.75/mBtu for 2022e, USD12.00/mBtu for 2023e, USD11.00/mBtu for 2024e.

Free Cash Flow and Distribution Yields

• European average free cash yield is expected to be ~17% in 2022e and ~11–13% in 2023e–2024e.
• US average free cash yield is ~10% in 2022e and ~8% in the longer term.
• Distribution yields are likely to average ~10% in Europe and ~8% in the US for the period 2022e–2024e, which is seen as a strong positive in uncertain times.

Target Price and Rating Changes

• HSBC has raised target prices on average by ~6%.
• Upgrade ENI to Buy, downgrade Total to Hold.
• Reiterate Buys on Equinor and Shell.
• The average implied upside to these target prices is ~11%.

Company-Specific Highlights

• BP: Hold rating, target price increased by ~1%, with a distribution yield of ~10.9% in 2022e.
• Chevron: Hold rating, target price increased by ~20%, with a distribution yield of ~4.6% in 2022e.
• ExxonMobil: Hold rating, target price increased by ~8%, with a distribution yield of ~2.0% in 2022e.
• Shell: Buy rating, target price increased by ~3%, with a distribution yield of ~17.1% in 2022e.
• TotalEnergies: Hold rating, target price decreased by ~6%, with a distribution yield of ~12.9% in 2022e.
• ENI: Buy rating, target price increased by ~3%, with a distribution yield of ~16.7% in 2022e.
• Repsol: Hold rating, target price increased by ~3%, with a distribution yield of ~10.4% in 2022e.
• Equinor: Buy rating, target price increased by ~12%, with a distribution yield of ~14.8% in 2022e.

Free Cash Flow and Balance Sheet Outlook

• The sector is expected to generate strong free cash flows, which will support higher distribution yields.
• Companies are likely to reduce their share counts and balance sheet gearing over the next few years.
• BP and Shell are expected to have the greatest share count reduction, while Equinor could reach a net cash position by the end of 2022e.

Energy Transition

• The sector faces concerns over low-carbon investments, but the current high free cash flow could provide an opportunity to accelerate energy transition strategies.
• Capex is expected to move towards the upper end of guidance, with more spending directed towards low-carbon businesses.
• However, risks remain around the value and returns of low-carbon assets, and disclosure and execution are needed to build confidence.

Market Sentiment

• The integrated oils sector has outperformed the broader market, particularly in Europe and the US.
• Fund weightings are still underweight, despite the sector's strong performance.
• In uncertain times, the high cash distributions and hedge against risk make the sector attractive for investors.

Key Information

• Free cash yields are expected to remain strong, with European companies at ~17% in 2022e and US companies at ~8% in the longer term.
• Distribution yields are seen as a key positive, with an average of ~10% in Europe and ~8% in the US.
• Target prices have been raised by ~6%, with ENI upgraded to Buy and Total downgraded to Hold.
• The Russia-Ukraine conflict has permanently reduced Russian gas flows to Europe, leading to higher LNG demand.
• The energy transition is a long-term challenge, but the current high cash flow provides an opportunity to accelerate low-carbon investments.
• Market uncertainty and geopolitical risks are still significant, but the strong fundamentals of integrated oils support their attractiveness to investors.