壳牌-液化石油天然气市场展望2018（英文）-29页-3mb

SHELL LNG 2018 Outlook Summary

Core Content

This document outlines Royal Dutch Shell's outlook for the LNG (Liquefied Natural Gas) market in 2018, emphasizing the growing role of LNG in the global energy transition and the need for increased supply investment to meet long-term demand.

Key Definitions

• Reserves: SEC proved oil and gas reserves.
• Resources: Quantities of oil and gas not yet classified as reserves, following SPE 2P + 2C definitions.
• Organic Free Cash Flow: Free cash flow excluding inorganic capital investment and divestment proceeds.
• Clean CCS ROACE: Return on average capital employed, excluding identified items, for the current and previous three quarters.
• Capital Employed: Total equity, current debt, and non-current debt.
• Divestments: Proceeds from sale of property, plant, equipment, and businesses, adjusted on accruals basis.

Main Points

1. External Environment Creating More Opportunities for Gas and LNG

• Energy Challenge: Growing economies require more and cleaner energy.
• Policy Support: Global policy actions are driving demand for gas and LNG, especially in the context of clean energy transitions.
• Environmental Benefits: Natural gas is increasingly recognized for its role in reducing emissions and supporting renewables.
• China's Demand: Strong gas demand in China is driven by growth outside the power sector, such as in industry and transportation.
• Energy Security: LNG provides a new form of energy security, addressing supply uncertainties and seasonal demand fluctuations.

2. Strong LNG Fundamentals Exceeded Expectations in 2017

• Unprecedented Capacity Expansion: 45% of liquefaction capacity expansion was completed in 2017.
• Global LNG Market Growth: The global LNG market continued to defy expectations, with a 29 mt increase in LNG imports.
• Spot Prices: Strong demand for LNG is reflected in spot prices, indicating market resilience.
• Liquidity: Physical and financial liquidity in the LNG market increased as the market evolved.
• FSRUs: Fast, flexible Floating Storage Regasification Units (FSRUs) are increasing LNG imports, especially in emerging markets.

3. Supply Investment Required to Meet Long-Term Demand Growth

• Supply-Demand Gap: A growing LNG supply-demand gap is a risk to future market growth.
• Changing Buyer Needs: LNG buyers are signing shorter and smaller contracts to remain competitive in the downstream market.
• Liquefaction Investment: Significant liquefaction investment is needed to meet rising demand, particularly in Asia and other regions.
• Stalemate in Supply: There is a mismatch between buyer and seller needs, constraining LNG supply growth.

Key Information

• Policy Trends: The G20, OECD, and various national governments are endorsing the role of natural gas in the energy transition.
• Regional Focus: EU policies support coal phase-out, while China and South Korea are reforming their gas markets to increase competitiveness.
• Environmental Impact: LNG supports renewable energy by providing reliable power generation when paired with solar and hydroelectric sources.
• Market Evolution: The LNG market is evolving with increased liquidity and flexibility, driven by new technologies and market dynamics.
• Future Outlook: Supply investment is critical to sustain LNG market growth, and Shell is positioning itself to meet this demand.

Forward-Looking Statements and Risks

• The document contains forward-looking non-GAAP measures such as Organic Free Cash Flow and ROACE.
• These statements are subject to risks including oil and gas price fluctuations, regulatory changes, geopolitical factors, and economic uncertainties.
• Shell cannot provide a reconciliation of these non-GAAP measures to GAAP due to the complexity and unpredictability of future events.

Conclusion

Shell highlights the importance of LNG in the global energy transition, driven by policy support, strong fundamentals, and growing demand, especially in China. However, the company warns of the risks posed by a lack of supply investment and the evolving needs of LNG buyers. Strategic investment in liquefaction capacity is essential to ensure long-term market growth and meet the increasing demand for cleaner energy solutions.