20230720-招银国际-舜宇光学科技-02382.HK-1H23_profit_warning_worse_than_feared__Maintain_Hold_8页_1mb

报告摘要

Summary of Sunny Optical Report Analysis

Date and Source: July 2023, CMB International Global Markets report on Sunny Optical (Ticker: 2382 HK). Focus on equity research and company update.
Key Financial Impact:
- 1H23 profit warning: Expected net profit of RMB407-475 million, down 65-70% YoY compared to prior estimates, driven by a non-cash FX loss (RMB161.5 million), smartphone demand weakness, and ASP/margin pressure on camera modules.
- Revenue for 1H23 expected to decline by 19% YoY (based on estimates), amid weak shipments in handset lens and camera modules sectors.
- Analyst actions: EPS estimates for FY23-25E were trimmed by 4-38% to reflect worse-than-expected results, primarily due to margin compression and sector slowdown.
Company Outlook:
- Positive for 2H23 recovery: Anticipated improvement driven by Android OEM recovery, Apple share gains in HCM/HLS segments, and strong growth in XR (virtual/augmented reality) due to Meta Quest 3 and pancake products.
- Continued challenges in smartphone-related segments, with valuation based on diversified business, including auto lenses and non-smartphone opportunities.
Valuation:
- Stock at 39.3x FY23 P/E, 24.9x FY24 P/E, considered fair; target price HK$78.09 (unchanged upside of 0.1%), derived from SOTP methodology assigning different P/Es to business segments.
- Dividend yield ~1.0%, with balance sheet stable but net profit growth declining in recent years.
Key Risks and Maintenance: Maintain Hold rating due to fair valuation, despite expectations for earnings bounce; recommendations based on neutral long-term but cautious short-term stance.