20230825-招银国际-舜宇光学科技-02382.HK-Expect_shipment_recovery_on_track_in_2H23E_Maintain_Hold_on_margin_overhang_8页_1mb

Company Overview

Sunny Optical (2382 HK) is a company primarily involved in optics and electronics. The report maintains a "Hold" recommendation for the stock, highlighting concerns about margin overhangs and a bumpy 2023 outlook despite positive sentiments on automotive and XR growth.

Key Highlights

• Shipments and Guidance: 2023 shipment guidance was revised downward; mobile-lens-set (HLS) growth is -10% YoY vs. prior +5%, handset-cam-module (HCM) is flattish YoY vs. +5%, VLS is up 15% YoY. Auto module revenue is guided to RMB1.6 billion, and XR revenue to 20% YoY growth. Overall, the revisions align with weak demand and order visibility.

• 2H23 Outlook: Management expects GPM recovery in H2 2023E, driven by smartphone demand stabilization, major client orders, and cost control. However, 2H23E GPM is estimated at 16.8% (below consensus), with limited spec upgrades and slow utilization recovery expected to drag margins.

• Financial Impact: Earnings per share (EPS) for FY23-25E were revised down by 9-18% to reflect 1H23 results and conservative margins. New EPS estimates are 23-39% below consensus. Valuation at 43.2x FY23E P/E (or 24.6x FY24E P/E), deemed fairly valued, with a new SOTP-based target price of HK$71.03 (up 12.6% from HK$63.10).

• Risks and Position: A Hold recommendation is due to macro uncertainties, 2H23E margin pressures, and sluggish consumer demand outweighing industry leadership and product strengths. Upside potential is moderate, highlighting bumpy outlook as an overhang.

Valuation Summary

• SOTP Valuation: Implied target P/E of 24.7x FY24E EPS, based on segments: 18x CCM, 35x vehicle lenses (high-growth), 25x handset lenses.
• Peer Comparison: Average forward P/E and P/B from peers suggests aligned valuation, supporting "Hold."

Disclosure and Recommendation

• Maintain "Hold" with target price HK$71.03, reflecting potential +15% to -10% performance over 12 months. 📌 Key Risk: Slower-than-expected margin recovery and macro uncertainties listed in disclosures.