2012年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Islamic_Republic_of_Mauritania_2012_Article_IV_Consultation_and_Fourth_Review_Under_the_Three_112页_2mb

Summary of the Islamic Republic of Mauritania: 2012 Article IV Consultation and Fourth Review Under the Three-Year Extended Credit Facility Arrangement

Core Content

This document outlines the 2012 Article IV consultation and the fourth review of Mauritania's three-year Extended Credit Facility (ECF) arrangement, along with requests for waivers of nonobservance and modifications of performance criteria. It includes the staff report, supplement, Public Information Notice (PIN), Press Release, and statement by the Executive Director. The discussions took place in Nouakchott from April 29 to May 16, 2012, and the report was finalized on June 14, 2012.

The report assesses Mauritania's macroeconomic performance, structural reforms, and policy challenges, while highlighting the impact of the drought, external shocks, and social issues. It also includes economic and financial indicators, monetary and fiscal developments, and key policy discussions.

Main Views and Key Information

1. Economic Performance and Outlook

• 2011 Performance: Despite a severe drought, a slowdown in Europe, and high international food and fuel prices, Mauritania achieved real GDP growth of 4%, inflation below 6%, and record fiscal and external buffers.
• 2012 Outlook: Economic activity is expected to pick up, driven by rebound in cereal production and major infrastructure projects, lifting growth to above 5%.
• Inflation: Expected to remain contained, with core inflation rising slightly due to one-off adjustments in administered prices and excise duties.
• Current Account Deficit: Expected to widen temporarily in 2012 due to one-off effects such as the drought and major energy investments, but will recover as mineral production increases and nonmetal prices fall.
• Foreign Reserves: Reached $501.6 million in 2011, covering 3.6 months of imports. By 2017, they are projected to cover 4.8 months of imports.

2. Structural Reforms and Program Implementation

• Program Review: The ECF-supported program has remained strong, with all quantitative performance criteria met for end-December 2011.
• Nonconcessional Debt: One continuous performance criterion was missed due to delays in the parliamentary calendar.
• Structural Reforms: Most structural reform benchmarks are progressing well, except for three: public enterprise audits, external debt strategy, and IFRS quantification.
• Policy Recommendations:
  • Accelerate subsidy reforms to ensure fiscal sustainability.
  • Anchor fiscal policy on non-mining aggregates and create a mining fund.
  • Strengthen social safety nets and deepen the financial sector.
  • Persevere with structural reforms to reduce poverty and unemployment.

3. Short-Term Challenges

• Drought Impact:
  • Wheat production is 55% below historical average.
  • 800,000 people now live in food insecurity, up from 250,000 a year ago.
  • 60,000 refugees from Mali have settled in Southeast Mauritania.
• Fiscal Response:
  • The emergency drought-relief budget increased from 2% to 3% of non-oil GDP.
  • The new T-bill instrument will be introduced to absorb excess liquidity, under central bank control but financed by the Treasury.
• Monetary Policy:
  • Excess liquidity remains high, with T-bill yields at below 3%.
  • The central bank is advised to monitor inflationary pressures from infrastructure projects and exchange rate depreciation.
  • The bank lending channel is ineffective due to lack of asset markets and closed capital account, but could improve with scarce liquidity.

4. External Sector and Debt Sustainability

• Exchange Rate Regime: De facto other managed arrangement, with no restrictions on payments and transfers for current international transactions.
• Debt Sustainability:
  • The supplement includes a joint IMF/World Bank debt sustainability analysis.
  • Nonconcessional external debt is under continuous performance criteria, which was missed due to parliamentary delays.
  • Fiscal buffers and reserves are seen as key safeguards against external shocks.

5. Risks and Challenges

• External Vulnerability:
  • Mining sector accounts for 75% of exports, making the economy highly sensitive to metal price fluctuations and European demand shifts.
  • A 25% fall in metal prices is already incorporated into the baseline scenario.
• Social Risks:
  • High unemployment and slow poverty reduction remain critical issues.
  • Inadequate social safety nets could threaten social stability.
• Political Risks:
  • Social unrest could be triggered by pre-election spending pressures.
  • Legislative elections postponed may increase uncertainty and tensions.

Key Documents Included

• Staff Report: Analyzes economic developments, policy discussions, and program performance.
• Supplement: Joint IMF/World Bank Debt Sustainability Analysis.
• Public Information Notice (PIN): Summarizes Executive Board views.
• Press Release: Highlights Executive Board discussion on the Article IV consultation and IMF arrangement.
• Statement by the Executive Director: Provides official perspective on the consultation.

Conclusion

Mauritania's economy has shown resilience despite external shocks and drought, with fiscal and external buffers built up. However, structural reforms and social policies remain key challenges. The IMF recommends continuing the program, accelerating subsidy reforms, and strengthening social safety nets to ensure inclusive growth and macroeconomic stability in the medium term.