2011年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Islamic_Republic_of_Mauritania_Third_Review_Under_the_Three_58页_1mb

Summary of the Islamic Republic of Mauritania: Third Review Under the Three-Year Extended Credit Facility Arrangement

Core Content

This document outlines the third review under the three-year Extended Credit Facility (ECF) arrangement for the Islamic Republic of Mauritania, conducted by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). It includes a staff report, press release, and related policy documents such as the Letter of Intent (LOI) and Technical Memorandum of Understanding (TMU). The report provides an overview of economic developments, program implementation, and policy discussions up to October 24, 2011, and is completed on November 23, 2011.

Main Views and Key Information

Economic Performance

• Positive macroeconomic developments were observed in 2011, supported by high international commodity prices and strong economic activity.
• Non-oil output is expected to grow by 4.8% in 2011, despite a drought-related decline in agricultural and livestock production.
• Inflation was 5.4% by end-June 2011, moderated by administered pricing and low money growth.
• Inflation rose to 6.1% in September 2011 due to administered price hikes and is expected to increase further.
• Current account deficit narrowed to 5.3% of GDP by end-year, supported by high metal export prices.
• Foreign exchange reserves reached an unprecedented $522 million in September 2011, representing 3.6 months of imports.

Program Implementation

• All continuous and quantitative performance criteria for end-June 2011 were met with a comfortable margin, thanks to higher-than-expected mining revenues.
• Structural reform progress was strong, except for the poverty survey benchmark, which was delayed due to the rainy season and overlap with the civil census.
• Fiscal discipline is maintained, with the 2012 budget incorporating drought relief measures expected to cost 2% of non-oil GDP.

Policy Discussions

A. Macroeconomic Outlook

• Real GDP growth for 2012 is projected at 5.5%, driven by manufacturing and mining expansion, particularly in gold.
• Inflation is expected to stabilize slightly below 7%, with monetary policy remaining inflation-targeted.
• Current account deficit is projected to widen to -7.2% of GDP, due to declines in export volumes and increased food and energy imports.
• International reserves are expected to reach $514 million, representing 4.2 months of imports.

B. Fiscal Policy

• Fiscal consolidation is a top priority, with the non-oil basic deficit projected to improve to 0.7% of GDP.
• Revenue mobilization is being enhanced through:
  • Increasing dividend payouts from public mining company (SNIM).
  • Reestablishing excises on tobacco.
  • Implementing tax reforms, including single taxpayer ID codes, database linkages, and ASYCUDA ++.
• Subsidy reform is underway, aiming to reduce energy subsidies and targeted cash transfers for the poor.
• Diesel prices are expected to reach international levels by early 2012.
• LPG and electricity tariffs will be increased in 2012, with tariff grids moving toward cost recovery.
• Wage bill containment is being pursued through:
  • Civil service reform.
  • Payroll updates using census data.
  • Banning recruitment outside regular processes.
  • Establishing a centralized database for public enterprise employees.

C. Monetary, Exchange Rate, and Financial Sector Policies

• The exchange rate regime is a managed arrangement with no restrictions on payments and transfers.
• Monetary policy is targeted toward inflation control, with the CBM ready to tighten if inflationary pressures rise.
• Financial system resilience is being improved through:
  • Increased bank capital.
  • Enhanced supervision.
• Private-sector credit growth is expected to slow, due to weaker economic activity and reduced foreign exchange inflows.

D. Debt Management

• Debt sustainability is a concern, with external debt expected to reach 60% of GDP in the adverse scenario.
• Debt relief with Kuwait is critical to maintaining sustainability.
• Public debt is expected to rise in the adverse scenario, while overall non-oil balance will worsen.

E. Other Structural Reforms

• Public enterprise restructuring is progressing, with audits and performance contracts to be implemented.
• Investment climate improvements, credit access, and labor market reforms are key to inclusive growth.
• Social safety nets are being strengthened through cash transfer schemes, free food distribution, and school meal systems.

Risks and Challenges

• Downside risks are significant, particularly due to:
  • European economic uncertainty and declines in demand for iron ore and fish.
  • A more severe drought than anticipated, which could worsen growth prospects.
  • Volatility in metal prices and external demand.
• High unemployment and poverty rates remain key challenges.
• Donor fatigue from ongoing relief efforts in the Horn of Africa and neighboring countries could limit external assistance.

Outlook and Recommendations

• Fiscal discipline and sustainability are emphasized, with a focus on reducing reliance on volatile mining revenues.
• Subsidy reform is encouraged to improve transparency and public confidence.
• Improved public financial management through Treasury Single Account and reducing treasury advances is essential.
• Donor coordination and emergency declarations are needed to fully mobilize external support.
• Structural reforms will continue to be a priority for long-term growth and stability.