2011年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Islamic_Republic_of_Mauritania_Ex_Post_Assessment_of_Longer_39页_1mb

Summary of the Ex Post Assessment of Longer-Term Program Engagement for the Islamic Republic of Mauritania

Core Content

This report provides an ex post assessment of the three Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility (PRGF) arrangements approved for Mauritania in 1999, 2003, and 2006. The evaluation is based on information available up to June 7, 2011, and aims to analyze the country's performance under these programs, the lessons learned, and the way forward for future engagement.

Main Objectives of the Programs

• Macroeconomic Stability: Maintaining fiscal discipline and controlling inflation.
• Sustainable Economic Growth: Promoting growth through structural reforms and diversification.
• Poverty Reduction: Enhancing social spending and improving living standards.
• Economic Diversification: Reducing reliance on extractive industries such as mining and fishing.

Program Performance

Macroeconomic Record

• Growth: The average growth rate between 1999 and 2009 was 3.9%, which is lower than the previous decade and also below the average for Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) at 5.4%.
• Inflation: Inflation initially rose due to external shocks but declined significantly in the second half of the decade. However, the 2003 PRGF's inflation targets were missed due to fiscal overruns and rising oil prices. The 2006 PRGF had a target of 9% inflation in the first year, which was achieved, and a target of 4% in the final year, which was also met.
• Fiscal Performance: Fiscal balances fluctuated widely, ranging from a surplus of 3.8% of GDP in 2002 to deficits of 16.4% in 2003 and 7.3% in 2008. The 2006 PRGF allowed for a 1% surplus, but this was not sustained due to the impact of a military coup and rising expenditures.

Structural Reforms

• 1999 PRGF: Focused on privatization, trade liberalization, and labor market reforms.
• 2003 PRGF: Shifted focus to public expenditure management, fiscal transparency, and financial sector reform.
• 2006 PRGF: Emphasized oil revenue management, budget execution, and civil service reform. However, structural conditionality was significantly streamlined, particularly in the area of safeguards, which may have been excessive given the country's vulnerabilities.

Poverty Reduction and MDGs

• Despite the programs' objectives, poverty reduction was not substantial, and progress on the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) was limited. Social spending, especially outside the capital Nouakchott, was not effectively targeted, and the economy's vulnerability to external shocks limited the effectiveness of growth in reducing poverty.

Key Challenges and Misreporting

• Misreporting: The discovery of misreporting in 2004–05, particularly regarding central bank reserves, significantly affected the perception of Mauritania as a strong reformer. It led to the cancellation of the 2003 PRGF and the suspension of the 2006 PRGF.
• Data Integrity: The use of distorted data in program design and monitoring made it difficult to assess the effectiveness of the programs accurately. As a result, the evaluation focuses more on the rationale of the proposed policies than on detailed comparisons between targets and outcomes.

Cooperation with the World Bank

• The World Bank played a role in program design and monitoring. However, the cooperation was not fully effective, and the Bank's operations with Mauritania from 1999 to 2010 were not detailed in the report.

Lessons and Recommendations

Lessons Learned

• Transparency: There is a need for greater transparency in the public sector, particularly in the central bank.
• Structural Reforms: The macroeconomic policy framework requires strengthening, with a focus on improving public expenditure management and financial sector reforms.
• Growth-Oriented Policies: Policies should be identified and monitored to create a more market-friendly environment and promote sustainable growth.
• Social Spending: Social spending must be more efficiently targeted, especially outside Nouakchott, and fiscal space should be protected by controlling other government expenditures.

Recommendations

• Enhance Transparency: The authorities should improve the transparency of the central bank and other public institutions.
• Strengthen Governance: Governance reforms, including the establishment of an internal audit mechanism, should be prioritized.
• Support Technical Assistance: The Fund should continue to support technical assistance to strengthen administrative, absorptive, and implementation capacities.
• Collaborate with Donors: The Fund should work closely with the World Bank and other donors to support the reform agenda and ensure effective implementation.
• Protect Fiscal Space: The fiscal space for social spending should be preserved by containing other government expenditures, especially in the context of ongoing political instability.

Conclusion

• Mauritania achieved a basic level of macroeconomic stability but did not fully realize the structural reforms and poverty reduction goals. The economy remains vulnerable to external shocks and lacks mechanisms to cope with volatility. The Fund can play a key role in supporting future reforms, particularly with the collaboration of the World Bank and other donors.