2025-06-10-Jefferies-名创优品（9896）_对Top_Toy可能分拆的初步评估_8页_268kb

Equity Research Report Summary: Miniso (9896 HK)
Date: June 10, 2025
Rating: HOLD
Price Target: HK$36.00 (+1% from prior close)

Key Event

Miniso is conducting a preliminary assessment of spinning off Top Toy, its wholly-owned subsidiary specializing in pop toys (e.g., blind boxes, assembly blocks, and vinyl plush toys), to enhance shareholder value and redirect capital. The plan is preliminary and not confirmed. Top Toy contributed 5.8%/2.9% to Miniso's 2024 sales/EBIT and is expected to account for 7.3%/6.1% in 2025, with estimated EBIT of RMB215m (121% YoY growth) from a 56% sales increase.

Valuation Analysis

• A scenario study suggests a separation could add ~6% to Miniso's 2025E SOTP (Sum of the Parts Valuation) under a 22x EV/EBIT multiple for Top Toy, based on 20% new share issuance.
• Current multiples (Table: Listed pop toy segment - Comp table) show wider EV/EBIT and lower P/E for peers like Bloks vs. Miniso.
• Total SOTP without spin-off implies FY25 EV/EBIT of 9.5x (JEF estimate); with spin-off, it increases to 22.3x for Top Toy.

Company Background

Top Toy operates through franchising and owns 40% of its sales products. It has a 5-year plan (Fig 2) to grow GMV, expand IP portfolio, and enter 800 top malls and overseas markets. FY2024 Adj. EBIT margin was around 10% for Top Toy, vs. 21% for Miniso.

Strategic View

Miniso has historically engaged in corporate activities (e.g., acquisitions, CB issuance). The spin-off could allocate funds to key competitors targeting pop toys (e.g., 52 Toys, Kayou), while Top Toy's valuation depends on its growth, business outlook, and sector sentiment.

Upside/Downside Risks

• Upside: Better-than-expected core Miniso performance or completion of the Yonghui acquisition (29.4% stake).
• Downside: Slower overseas expansion, cannibalization issues, weaker product popularity, or drag from Yonghui's underperformance (NP expected at RMB-406/579m for 2025/2026).

Broader Company Valuation

Primary DCF method uses WACC of 15.1% and terminal growth of 1.0%. Core Miniso business (Miniso + Top Toys) shows mixed segment margins, with Miniso brand and Top Toy contributing marginally in 2024/2025. Holding company discount and unallocated costs are factored in SOTP scenarios.

Rating: HOLD—Recommendation for moderate buy/hold, with target based on sector multiples and preliminary spin-off scenario.