IMF-土耳其的气候缓解政策（英）-2023.5-48页_1020kb

Summary of Climate Mitigation Policy in Türkiye

Introduction

Turkey aims for net zero emissions by 2053, aligning with global climate goals. However, current policies fall short of the necessary emissions reductions, and urgent action is required to bridge the ambition gap. This IMF working paper analyzes key elements for a comprehensive strategy to achieve progress, focusing on policy instruments that can effectively reduce emissions while ensuring equity and economic feasibility.

Key Recommendations

• Define a 2030 GHG emissions target of around 290-300 million tonnes.
• Implement a comprehensive carbon price (either a carbon tax or emissions trading system) rising progressively to $75 per tonne by 2030.
• Use revenues from carbon pricing for reductions in labor income taxes and targeted support to low-income households to ensure the policy is pro-poor and equitable.
• Consider a border carbon adjustment mechanism (BCAM) to address competitiveness concerns for energy-intensive industries, preserving exports.
• Employ feebates to reinforce mitigation incentives in sectors like power and industry, without a significant burden on firms.
• Integrate feebates into vehicle registration taxes to promote the adoption of low-emission vehicles, and apply similar schemes to energy-efficient appliances and building renovations.
• Explore proxy emissions pricing or feebates for sectors like extractives, agriculture, and forestry to cover emissions beyond energy-related sources.

Modeling Results

A phased revenue-neutral carbon price of $75 per tonne by 2030 could reduce CO2 emissions by 21% below baseline levels in 2030, increase GDP by 1.7%, avoid up to 11,000 air pollution-related premature deaths, and yield significant health and economic co-benefits. The average household burden before revenue recycling is estimated at 3% of consumption, but after recycling through targeted transfers and labor tax cuts, households are better off overall.

Policy Impacts and Implementation

• Emissions: Carbon pricing drives reductions primarily in the power and industry sectors, with substantial decreases in coal use.
• Revenue and Equity: Effectively recycling revenues helps offset distributional burdens, such as higher energy prices on low-income groups.
• Competitiveness: BCAM or exemptions/rebates can mitigate competitiveness issues in trade-exposed industries.
• Real-World Feasibility: Modeling accounts for global price trends, behavioral responses, and potential long-term shifts in technology adoption.

Complementary Sectoral Measures

Sector-specific policies are needed to address hard-to-abate areas:

• Power Generation: Expand renewable energy through incentives like feed-in tariffs, supplemented by feebates to encourage cleaner technologies.
• Transportation: Strengthen vehicle registration taxes with feebates to promote electric vehicle adoption over internal combustion engines.
• Buildings: Link property taxes or excises with feebates to incentivize energy-efficient retrofits and renovations.
• Extractives and Agriculture: Implement proxy emissions taxes or feebates to reduce methane and GHG emissions, with compensations for farmers to ensure acceptability.
• Forestry: Use feebates to reward carbon storage enhancements without fiscal costs.

The analysis underscores that while carbon pricing is efficient, reinforcing instruments like feebates and revenue recycling are crucial for broad acceptability and equity, with careful design to balance economic and environmental outcomes.