IMF-开采量大幅下降的经济后果：绿色转型的经验教训（英）-2023.5-48页_11mb

Economic Consequences of Large Extraction Declines: Lessons for the Green Transition

Policy Implications and Key Findings

• Policy Implications: High-income countries experience smaller negative impacts on GDP. Institutions play a crucial role in absorbing negative effects. Enhancing climate policy certainty can facilitate smoother transitions.
• Country-Specific Effects: Low-income nations experience significantly larger GDP contractions following extraction declines, even when controlling for sector size and income levels. The persistence of Dutch Disease effects is evident, with exchange rates depreciating but inadequate to offset export declines.
• Theoretical Insights: The study provides empirical support for a neoclassical small-open-economy model, which qualitatively aligns with the findings.

Study Summary

• Research Objective: To analyze the macroeconomic consequences of persistent declines in fossil fuel and other mineral extraction.
• Data and Methodology: Built a dataset of 13 minerals for 122 countries, identifying 35 exogenous, persistent declines using narrative and statistical approaches. Estimated effects using local projections, controlling for country-specific factors.
• Key Results: Extraction declines consistently lead to persistent negative impacts on real GDP, trade balances, and domestic sectors. Effects are more severe in low-income countries and lag in responses, reflecting misperceptions about shock persistence.
• Contributions: The first empirical analysis of the macroeconomic effects of persistent extraction declines, highlighting heterogeneity across countries and the role of institutions.