亚开行-经济和气候弹性对可持续发展的影响_跨国分析（英）-2025.8_40页_843kb

Summary of "Impact of Economic and Climate Resilience on Sustainable Development: A Cross-Country Analysis"

Core Content

This working paper explores the relationship between economic and climate resilience and sustainable economic development (SED) using a panel dataset of 31 countries from 2007 to 2021. The study applies advanced econometric techniques such as panel-corrected standard errors (PCSE), feasible generalized least squares (FGLS), panel quantile regression, and local projections impulse response functions (LP-IRFs) to analyze the influence of resilience on SED.

The paper emphasizes that both economic and climate resilience are crucial for achieving sustainable development, with dynamic and quantile analyses showing their persistent and robust effects. It also highlights the importance of considering the interplay between these two forms of resilience and how they affect different stages of development.

Main Findings

• Economic and Climate Resilience Impact: Both economic and climate resilience have significant positive effects on sustainable economic development.
• Dynamic Effects: Resilience has persistent impacts on SED over time, as shown by dynamic analysis using LP-IRFs.
• Nonlinear Relationship: Economic resilience exhibits a nonlinear relationship with SED, where its positive effect diminishes and may turn negative at higher levels of development, indicating a threshold effect.
• Climate Resilience Universality: Climate resilience benefits all stages of development, regardless of a country's economic maturity.
• Control Variables: The study controls for GDP growth, gross fixed capital formation (GFCF), trade openness, financial development, and natural resources.
• Policy Implications: The findings suggest that trade openness and financial development support SED, while excessive reliance on natural resources and high GFCF may hinder it.

Key Variables and Definitions

Methodology

• Data: A balanced panel dataset of 31 countries over 15 years (2007–2021).
• Estimation Techniques:
  • Panel-corrected standard errors (PCSE) and Feasible generalized least squares (FGLS) for baseline regression.
  • Panel quantile regression to assess distributional heterogeneity.
  • Local projections impulse response functions (LP-IRFs) to analyze dynamic responses to resilience shocks.
• Robustness Checks: The study accounts for cross-sectional dependence (CSD), slope heterogeneity, unit root, and cointegration using advanced tests such as Breusch-Pagan LM tests, Pesaran scaled LM tests, Pesaran CD tests, CADF, and CIPS tests.

Policy Relevance

• Economic Resilience: Enhancing economic resilience is critical for SED, but it must be adapted to a country's developmental stage to ensure effective resource allocation.
• Climate Resilience: Climate resilience is universally beneficial for sustainable development, regardless of economic maturity.
• Control Variables: Trade openness and financial development are found to be beneficial for SED, while natural resources and GFCF may be detrimental if over-relied upon.
• Nonlinear Impacts: The study reveals that economic resilience has a nonlinear impact on SED, with diminishing returns at higher development levels.

Conclusion

This paper contributes to the literature by integrating economic and climate resilience within a single analytical framework to assess their combined impact on sustainable development. It provides valuable insights for policymakers aiming to enhance national resilience in the face of economic and climate challenges, offering a nuanced understanding of how resilience interacts with development across different contexts. The results highlight the need for tailored policies that consider the unique developmental stages and characteristics of each country to effectively support sustainable economic development.