20251109-华泰期货-新能源及有色金属周报_下游需求淡季来临_镍不锈钢价格低位震荡_10页_1mb

Nickel Market Summary

• Price Movement: Nickel prices showed a weak to medium-term oscillation, with the main contract ending at 119,440 yuan/ton this week, down 0.95% from the week start, driven by high inventory levels and macroeconomic factors like declining December Fed interest rate expectations due to diverging official opinions.
• Supply Factors: Nickel mine supply is expected to decline, especially in the Philippines due to the rainy season and reduced mining activity, while Indonesian refined nickel production increased by 2.76% year-over-year. China's refined nickel output fell 9.38% month-over-month, but new projects in both China and Indonesia could add to supply.
• Demand and Consumption: Downstream stainless steel demand is muted, with 11-month crude steel output decreasing slightly. However, the new energy sector, such as batteries and storage, saw a 12.4% monthly increase, supporting demand for nickel intermediates, although this has limited impact on primary nickel.
• Cost and Profit: Production costs for integrated nickel methods varied, with marginal profit margins under pressure; for instance, MHP production had a 4.40% profit, while external purchases resulted in losses for some methods, indicating cost pressures.
• Inventory: High inventory levels continued, with SHFE nickel inventory up slightly but globally higher, weighing on prices.
• Market View: Expected medium-term range-bound volatility, with potential for a rebound if supply disruptions occur, but bearish outlook due to weak demand and excessive inventory. Minimal short-term trading strategies recommended.
• Key Risks: Policy shifts in China, Indonesia, and the US, along with macroeconomic uncertainty from events like the US government shutdown and evolving geopolitical tensions.

Stainless Steel Market Summary

• Price Movement: Prices were weak, ending at 12,565 yuan/ton this week, down from 12,655 yuan/ton previously, amid low market enthusiasm and deteriorating demand.
• Supply Factors: Despite rumors of stainless steel factory cutbacks, output remained high in 300 and 400 series, offsetting reductions in the 200 series.
• Demand and Consumption: End market demand is subdued, with the strongest weakness in construction and appliances; however, new energy-related exports of specialty steel (409/441) increased, offering some support.
• Cost and Profit: Costs held steady, but processing margins were under pressure. Hot rolling and cold rolling production costs showed minor monthly changes, yet overall margins weakened amid sluggish consumption.
• Inventory: High social inventory added to downward pressure, with total steel stocks rising slightly.
• Market View: Expected to remain in a low range due to high inventory and weak demand, with little immediate support. No short-term trading positions suggested.
• Key Risks: Similar to nickel, including domestic economic policies, US policy changes, and regional geopolitical instability.

Overall, the market is dominated by bearish fundamentals in demand and supply excesses, supported by minor tailwinds from new energy, but excessive inventory and macro risks keep prices in a defensive mode.