2013年-世界发展银行全球_Belarus_Macroeconomic_Update___Achieving_Stability_and_Growth_21页_1mb

Belarus Macroeconomic Update Summary

Core Content

This document provides an analysis of Belarus' macroeconomic situation and presents three scenarios for the period 2013-2016, highlighting the trade-offs between economic growth and macroeconomic stability. It outlines recent trends, economic outlook, and policy implications, emphasizing the need for a consistent and sustainable policy framework.

Main Macroeconomic Trends

• Domestic Demand Led Growth: In the first half of 2013, GDP growth was 1.4 percent, driven by domestic demand expansion despite weak export performance.
• Industrial Production Declined: Industrial output fell by -1.2 percent, with manufacturing down by -4.2 percent.
• Agricultural Output Growth: Agricultural output grew slowly at 1.5 percent.
• Retail Trade Expansion: Retail trade increased by 18.8 percent, supported by rising real wages and incomes.
• Investment Growth: Fixed capital investment increased by 8.8 percent, influenced by statistical base effects and public investment in construction.
• Current Account Deficit: Net exports declined sharply, leading to a merchandise trade deficit of USD 900 million in Jan-May'13 and a current account deficit of 11 percent of GDP in H1'13.
• Inflationary Pressures: Inflation remained in double digits at 18 percent in June'13, with high foreign exchange deposits signaling persistent inflation and devaluation expectations.
• Real Exchange Rate Appreciation: Despite nominal depreciation, the real exchange rate appreciated, eroding competitiveness gained from the 2011 devaluation.
• Fiscal Policy: Revenue shortfalls occurred due to economic slowdown, but expenditure containment achieved a small surplus of 0.9 percent of GDP in H1'13.
• Wage Growth Outpacing Productivity: Real wages grew significantly faster than productivity, increasing competitiveness risks.

Macroeconomic Outlook (2013-2016)

1. Base Scenario

• Growth: Expected to be 2.5 percent in 2013, with moderate growth in domestic investment and consumption offsetting a decline in net exports.
• Inflation: Expected to remain above 15 percent over the projection period.
• Current Account: Deficit is expected to widen to 7.8 percent of GDP in 2013, requiring additional external debt inflows.
• Foreign Reserves: Declined to 1.5 months of imports by the end of 2013, with limited coverage.
• External Debt: Increased to 54.2 percent of GDP in 2013, with further rise expected.
• Policy Risk: Vulnerabilities to shocks are expected to intensify, and the policy framework may not be resilient to external liquidity constraints.

2. Expansionary Scenario

• Growth: Higher growth (up to 6.5 percent in 2015) through aggressive expansionary policies.
• Inflation: Inflationary pressures are expected to rise sharply, reaching 27.3 percent in 2016.
• Current Account: Deficit is expected to widen to 12.0 percent of GDP in 2015.
• Foreign Reserves: Declined to 0.6 months of imports by 2015, with insufficient coverage.
• External Debt: Increased to 74.2 percent of GDP by 2016.
• Policy Risk: This scenario would lead to unsustainable external financing needs and a painful adjustment in the long term.

3. Sustainable Growth Scenario

• Growth: Moderate growth (2.0 to 3.6 percent) with a focus on macroeconomic stability and structural reforms.
• Inflation: Inflation is expected to decline, reaching 8.8 percent in 2016.
• Current Account: Deficit is expected to narrow to -5.7 percent of GDP in 2016.
• Foreign Reserves: Rebuilt to 2.0 months of imports by 2016.
• External Debt: Stabilized at around 58.2 percent of GDP in 2015.
• Policy Risk: This scenario reduces macroeconomic vulnerabilities and supports sustainable growth through competitiveness-enhancing reforms.

Key Policy Recommendations

• Maintain Flexible Exchange Rate Regime: To avoid real exchange rate appreciation and maintain competitiveness.
• Sustain Tight Monetary Policy: Contain credit growth and inflation, especially through government-directed lending programs.
• Balance Wage Growth with Productivity: Prevent excessive real wage growth that could undermine competitiveness.
• Maintain Tight Fiscal Policy: Ensure a balanced budget over the medium term.
• Implement Structural Reforms: Strengthen competitiveness, overcome balance of payments issues, and kickstart sustainable growth.

Global Economic and Commodity Outlook

• Global Growth: Expected to be stable but slow, at 2.2 percent in 2013, rising to 3.3 percent in 2015.
• Commodity Prices: Oil prices are projected to fall to an average of $101/bbl in 2013, down from $105/bbl in 2012.
• Potash Prices: Expected to decline due to weak demand and the exit of URALKali from the BPC cartel, with a 25 percent decline reducing exports by 1.0-1.3 percent of GDP annually.

Conclusion

The three scenarios highlight the risks associated with different macroeconomic approaches. A consistent and sustainable policy framework, focusing on macroeconomic stability and structural reforms, is recommended to mitigate risks and support long-term growth. Short-term expansionary policies may lead to unsustainable external imbalances and a more painful adjustment in the future.