2015年-世界发展银行全球_Lao_Economic_Monitor_April_2015___Towards_Restoring_Macroeconomic_Stability_and_Building_Inclusive_Growth_48页_2mb

Summary of Lao Economic Monitor - April 2015

Core Content

This document provides an overview of the economic developments in Lao PDR (Lao PDR) for 2014 and projections for 2015, focusing on macroeconomic stability and inclusive growth. It highlights the country's progress and challenges in various sectors, including trade, investment, and public finance, while also addressing the implications of the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) 2015 and the need for creating productive jobs.

Main Points

1. Economic Growth

• Growth in 2014: The Lao PDR economy grew at 7.5% in 2014, slightly below the 8% average from 2011–2013.
• Contributing Sectors: Construction (linked to hydropower and mining), forestry (wood exports), and services were key contributors.
• Projection for 2015: Real GDP growth is expected to slow to 6.4% in 2015, but will accelerate in the medium term.
• Factors Affecting Growth: Fiscal consolidation and slower credit growth are expected to restore macroeconomic stability, but risks such as instability in Thailand or China could affect growth.

2. Inflation

• 2014 Inflation: Average annual inflation decelerated to 4.2% from 6.4% in 2013, driven by slower food price growth and declining fuel prices.
• Food Prices: Increased by 7% in 2014 compared to 2013, a significant slowdown from 12.6% in 2013.
• Fuel Prices: Fell by 5.4% in 2013 and an additional 0.8% in 2014, reflecting global market trends.
• 2015 Projection: Inflation is expected to be around 4–5%.

3. Fiscal Management

• Fiscal Deficit: Reduced from 6% of GDP in FY12/13 to 4.3% in FY13/14, and is projected to stabilize at 4.2% in FY14/15.
• Revenue Sources: Non-resource revenues (VAT, excise, import duties) increased to 14.8% of GDP, offsetting lower mining and grant revenues.
• Expenditure Measures: Spending cuts equivalent to 1% of GDP were implemented in FY13/14, mainly from public investment and administrative costs.
• Public Spending: The government plans to limit total public spending growth to 7% in nominal terms, supported by lower recruitment and a wage freeze for most civil servants.

4. Public Debt and External Sector

• Public Debt: Fiscal consolidation efforts have helped reduce the deficit, but the financial position remains tight due to arrears repayment.
• External Sector: The current account deficit reflects high FDI-funded imports and is expected to gradually improve as hydropower projects come online and electricity exports increase.
• Foreign Exchange Reserves: Remained low, with coverage of less than 2 months of imports, highlighting vulnerability to external shocks.

5. Exchange Rate

• Nominal Exchange Rate: Relatively stable within the band set by the Bank of Lao PDR (BOL).
• Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER): Continued to appreciate, undermining the competitiveness of Lao exports and increasing the cost of imports.
• Impact: The appreciation of the Lao kip by over 30% in the last five years has affected trade balance.

6. Banking Sector

• Credit Growth: Slowed sharply in 2014 from an average of 50% annually between 2008–2013 to 14% in December 2014.
• Non-Performing Loans (NPL): NPL ratio for state-owned commercial banks rose to about 8% in June 2014, up from below 3% at the end of 2013.
• Capital-to-Asset Ratio: Declined to about 3%, raising concerns about banking sector health.

Key Issues

I. ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) 2015 - Implications for Lao PDR

• Opportunities: AEC 2015 is expected to bring new opportunities, particularly in foreign investment and professional services.
• Challenges: Lao PDR's export performance remains skewed towards natural resources. Non-resource sectors face high trade costs and limited competitiveness.
• Reforms Needed: Steps are required to improve the business environment, including regulatory reforms, trade facilitation, mutual recognition of qualifications, and improving labor skills.
• Investment Regime: A transparent and non-discriminatory investment regime is needed to attract and support quality investment.

II. Creating Productive Jobs for Inclusive Growth

• Labor Distribution: Most labor is in the agriculture sector, which has low productivity.
• Job Creation: Limited job creation in the resource sector, despite its growth.
• Productivity Challenges: Skills problems extend beyond vocational training to include basic literacy and numeracy from early childhood.
• Strategies: Boosting agricultural productivity and improving non-agricultural sectors through process streamlining are essential for job creation.
• Private Sector Development: A diversified private sector is needed to generate employment opportunities.

Conclusion

The Lao PDR economy experienced strong growth in 2014, driven by construction, forestry, and services, but this growth was not evenly distributed across sectors. Inflation slowed due to declining food and fuel prices, and fiscal consolidation measures helped reduce the deficit. However, the country faces challenges in building up foreign exchange reserves and maintaining macroeconomic stability. The AEC 2015 presents opportunities for Lao PDR, but requires significant reforms to enhance competitiveness and attract investment. Creating productive jobs and improving workforce skills, particularly in the non-resource and agricultural sectors, is crucial for achieving inclusive growth and poverty reduction.