2003年-世界发展银行全球_Turkey_-_Country_Economic_Memorandum___Towards_Macroeconomic_Stability_and_Sustained_Growth_Volume_1_Summary_Report_46页_4mb

报告摘要

Turkey: Country Economic Memorandum Summary

Core Content

This document, the Turkey Country Economic Memorandum (CEM), outlines the challenges and strategies for achieving macroeconomic stability and sustained growth in Turkey. It is part of a three-volume series and was prepared by the World Bank in July 2003. The report analyzes the economic context, the 2001 crisis, the government's response, and the medium-term agenda for reform.

Main Points

1. Economic Context

Turkey has not achieved the high growth rates seen in leading emerging market economies.
It has lagged behind EU accession countries (e.g., Hungary, Poland) and cohesion countries (e.g., Spain, Portugal).
Per capita income in Turkey has declined from 26% of the EU average in 1991 to 22% in 2002.
The Turkish economy has grown at an average of under 3% per year over the past decade, which is respectable but below the performance of other emerging economies.

2. Macroeconomic Instability

Macroeconomic instability, particularly chronically high inflation and volatile business cycles, has hindered Turkey's growth potential.
Inflation in Turkey has remained above 30% annually, making it one of the few major economies still struggling with such high inflation.
Fiscal imbalances are a root cause of macroeconomic instability, leading to pressure on the Lira, inflation, and financial instability.
The open capital account and poorly regulated banking system have amplified the negative effects of fiscal policy on macroeconomic stability.

3. Crisis and Response

The exchange rate-based disinflation program launched in 2000 collapsed in early 2001 due to structural fiscal weaknesses and systemic banking sector issues.
The government responded with a strengthened economic program in May 2001, including:
- Tightening fiscal policy to restore financial stability.
- Front-loaded bank restructuring using fiscal resources.
- Structural reforms in the financial sector, including prudential regulation, financial reporting standards, and compliance.
- Public sector reforms aimed at addressing the structural roots of fiscal imbalance.
- Privatization and liberalization in energy, telecommunications, and agriculture.
- Enhanced social assistance for low-income groups affected by the crisis.
The crisis response program was supported by IMF and World Bank financial assistance.

4. Medium-Term Agenda

Sustained fiscal adjustment and credible structural reforms are essential for macroeconomic stability.
Effective governance and modernization of public institutions are critical for quality fiscal adjustment and improving the business environment.
Financial and real sector reforms are needed to improve performance, promote corporate restructuring, and accelerate privatization and market liberalization.
Social policies should be strengthened to ensure a robust social contract, mitigate the adverse effects of structural adjustments, and improve human capital and labor market efficiency.
Integration with the global economy and EU accession are key for sustained growth and confidence.

5. Medium-Term Outlook

The report highlights the importance of sustained reform to achieve macroeconomic stability and growth.
A Sustained Reform Scenario (SRS) is proposed, which includes:
- Greater confidence in the policy framework.
- Improved macroeconomic stability and declining real interest rates.
- Increased productivity from structural reforms.
- Stronger export performance.
- Higher external inflows, including significant FDI.
Under this scenario, Turkey is projected to achieve 5% real growth from 2003 to 2006.
The report warns that without reform, a low-case (muddle through) scenario would lead to:
- Loss of momentum in structural reforms.
- Expansionary fiscal policy.
- Disappointing inflation and growth performance.
- High interest rates and crowding out of private investment.
- High vulnerability to internal and external shocks.
- Increased difficulty in pursuing the social agenda.

Key Information

Tables

Table 1: Key Economic Indicators, 1999–2003.
Table 2: Alternative Fiscal Adjustment Scenarios.
Table 3: Fiscal Adjustment, 1999–2002.
Table 4: Fiscal Cost of Bank Restructuring.
Table 5: Productivity and Wages in Selected Countries.

Figures

Figure 1: Per Capita GDP at PPS.
Figure 2: GDP & GDP Per Capita Growth.
Figure 3: REER and GDP Growth.
Figure 4: Adjusted PSBR.
Figure 5: Total Net Public Debt.
Figure 6: GNP Growth.
Figure 7: Real Interest Rate.
Figure 8: Openness: Trade to GDP.
Figure 9: Public Sector Fixed Investment.
Figure 10: Public Sector Wage Bill.
Figure 11: Deficit of Social Security System.
Figure 12: Per Capita Income & General Government Expenditure.
Figure 13: Tax Burden.
Figure 14: Private Sector Real Credit Volume.
Figure 15: Distressed Companies, 1998–2001 Q1.
Figure 16: Privatization Under PA.
Figure 17: Post Crisis FDI.
Figure 18: FDI.
Figure 19: Unemployment Rate.
Figure 20: Population, Labor Force and Employment.
Figure 21: Growth.
Figure 22: PSBR.
Figure 23: Current Account Balance.
Figure 24: Per Capita Income.
Figure 25: Total Net Public Debt.

Key Acronyms

AMC: Asset Management Company
PA: Privatization Administration
BRSA: Banking Regulatory and Supervisory Authority
BO: Build Operate
BOO: Build Operate Own
BOT: Build Operate Transfer
CEM: Country Economic Memorandum
CPI: Consumer Price Index
EBITDA: Earnings Before Interest, Tax, Depreciation and Amortization
EU: European Union
FDI: Foreign Direct Investment
GDP: Gross Domestic Product
GNP: Gross National Product
IA: Istanbul Approach
ISE: Istanbul Stock Exchange
ISKUR: Employment Organization
MOF: Ministry of Finance
NPL: Non-Performing Loans
PFMC: Public Financial Management and Control
PHC: Privatization High Council
REER: Real Effective Exchange Rate
SDIF: Saving Deposit Insurance Fund
SOE: State Owned Enterprises
SPO: State Planning Organization
SSK: Social Security Organization
TEAS: Electricity Generation and Transmission Company
TEDAS: Turkish Electricity Distribution Company
TEKEL: Turkish Tobacco Monopoly
TEIAS: Turkish Electricity Transmission Company
TEIAS: Turkish Electricity Transmission Company
TETAS: Turkish Electricity Trading Company
TOBB: Union of Chambers of Commerce and Industry
TUSIAD: Turkish Industrialists’ and Businessmen Association
TSFAS: Turkish Sugar Factories
YOIKK: Coordination Council for Investment Climate

Conclusion

The CEM emphasizes that Turkey's path to macroeconomic stability and sustained growth requires credible structural reforms, fiscal adjustment, and improved governance. The report outlines a four-point agenda for sustainable growth:

Macroeconomic stability
Effective government
Improved business environment
Stronger social policies

Without sustained reform, Turkey risks falling back into a low-case scenario of weak growth, high inflation, and increased vulnerability to external shocks. The report underscores the importance of EU accession as a strategic external anchor for reform efforts.

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