2013年-世界发展银行全球_Tanzania_Economic_Update_December_2013___Raising_the_Game--Can_Tanzania_Eradicate_Extreme_Poverty__76页_23mb

Tanzania Economic Update Summary

Core Content

The Tanzania Economic Update explores the country's economic performance and evaluates the potential of conditional cash transfer (CCT) programs to reduce extreme poverty. It outlines the current state of the economy, the challenges it faces, and the strategic considerations for implementing and scaling up social protection initiatives.

Key Messages

• Economic Growth: Tanzania has experienced stable economic growth of around 7% annually since 2012, driven by capital-intensive sectors such as communication, transport, construction, and retail trade.
• Inflation: Inflation has remained under control, declining to 6.3% by October 2013, due to tighter monetary policy and falling food and energy prices.
• Poverty: Despite growth, approximately 12 million Tanzanians still live below the poverty line, similar to the figure from 2001.
• Cash Transfer Programs: Tanzania's TASAF (Tanzanian Social Action Fund) has piloted a CCT program, which has shown promising results in improving household consumption and education outcomes.
• Fiscal Challenges: The fiscal deficit increased from 5% of GDP in 2011/12 to 6.2% in 2012/13, driven by unmet revenue targets and higher public expenditure. The public debt ratio reached 43.4%, and debt-service to GDP rose to 1.8%.
• Debt Sustainability: The government needs to maintain fiscal discipline and balance public expenditure with debt sustainability, especially as natural gas revenues are expected to flow in the future.
• Social Protection: A national CCT program could significantly reduce extreme poverty, but it must be part of a comprehensive poverty reduction strategy that includes investment in infrastructure, education, and a favorable business environment.

Main Points

1. Economic Performance

• Growth: Tanzania has maintained a stable growth trajectory of about 7% annually, with the economy expanding across key sectors.
• Inflation: The inflation rate has been declining, reaching 6.3% by October 2013, contributing to macroeconomic stability.
• Exchange Rate: The real exchange rate appreciated by over 20% in 2012, but credit costs have increased due to adjustments in nominal interest rates.
• Trade: The current account balance improved in 2012 due to strong export performance, but exports declined by 5% in the first eight months of 2013, with capital goods imports being most affected.
• Fiscal Deficit: The overall fiscal deficit rose to 6.2% of GDP in 2012/13, partly due to unmet revenue targets and higher public spending.

2. Conditional Cash Transfers (CCTs)

• TASAF Program: Piloted since 2009, TASAF has benefited nearly 20,000 households, with US$18 per month provided to participants as conditional cash transfers.
• Impact: The program has helped increase consumption and investment in human capital, particularly education and health.
• Success Factors: The program's success is attributed to effective targeting, timely transfers, and strong monitoring mechanisms, supported by local governments and communities.
• Scaling Up: The government is planning to scale up the program to national coverage, which would cost US$250 million annually or about 2.5% of the national budget.
• Sustainability: While CCTs are a valuable tool, they should be part of a broad strategy that includes infrastructure development, productivity improvements, and a supportive business environment.

Risks and Challenges

• Fiscal Risk: The government must ensure fiscal sustainability by balancing public expenditure and debt levels, especially as elections approach.
• Parastatals: Several state-owned enterprises, including TANESCO, are facing financial difficulties, with large deficits and arrears.
• External Shocks: The economy remains vulnerable to commodity price fluctuations, particularly gold and oil.
• Productivity Gaps: The agricultural sector, though vital to GDP and employment, has low productivity, limiting its contribution to poverty reduction.
• Urbanization: Rapid urbanization may lead to agglomeration effects, but only if supported by improved infrastructure and connectivity.

Strategic Considerations

• Fiscal Adjustments: The government needs to adjust its accounts to maintain debt sustainability and ensure fiscal discipline.
• Natural Gas Revenue: Expected revenues from natural gas may provide a new source of funding for the CCT program and other public investments.
• Integrated Approach: While CCTs are effective, they must be integrated into a broader poverty reduction strategy that includes education, infrastructure, and economic reforms.
• Monitoring and Accountability: Strong monitoring and accountability mechanisms are essential to prevent corruption and mismanagement in the program.

Conclusion

The Tanzania Economic Update highlights the potential of cash transfer programs to alleviate extreme poverty, but also underscores the need for fiscal responsibility and strategic planning. The government is at a critical juncture, with the opportunity to implement a comprehensive social protection system that can significantly improve the lives of the poorest citizens. However, success depends on effective targeting, monitoring, and integration with broader economic and social policies.