2004年-世界发展银行全球_Macroeconomic_Stability_in____________Developing_Countries_How_Much_is_Enough__49页_535kb

Summary of "Macroeconomic Stability in Developing Countries: How Much Is Enough?"

Core Content

This paper analyzes the macroeconomic stability and growth performance of developing countries during the 1990s, highlighting the limitations of the reform agenda that focused primarily on macroeconomic stability. Despite improvements in traditional macroeconomic policies, the growth benefits were not as significant as expected, and the decade was marked by frequent financial crises. The paper argues that the shortcomings in the reform agenda, particularly in terms of depth, breadth, and institutional support, were the root causes of these outcomes.

Main Points

1. Macroeconomic Stability and Growth

• Macro stability as a goal: The 1990s saw significant improvements in macroeconomic stability, but these were not sufficient to deliver the expected growth benefits.
• Dual phenomena: Slow growth and frequent crises were both symptoms of the inadequate reform agenda.
• Growth dependency: Macroeconomic stability alone is not enough to promote growth; it must be complemented by other reforms, especially microeconomic and institutional ones.

2. Progress in Macroeconomic Stability

• Fiscal policy: Fiscal deficits declined, with the median fiscal balance improving from 6-7% of GDP in the early 1980s to 2% in the 1990s, though some countries saw a rebound to 3% by the end of the decade.
• Inflation: Inflation rates declined significantly in many developing countries, with the median inflation rate in middle-income countries dropping from 16% in 1990 to 6% in 2000. However, the gap between developing and industrial countries remained substantial.
• Output volatility: The standard deviation of per capita GDP growth declined from 4% in the 1970s and 1980s to 3% in the 1990s, but extreme volatility accounted for a larger share of total instability, indicating that the overall stability was still weak.
• Exchange rate volatility: Real exchange rate volatility decreased, but it remained higher in developing countries than in industrial ones. Nominal exchange rate regimes were often fragile, contributing to financial crises.

3. Policy Implementation and Institutional Weaknesses

• Policy vs. rules: While policy outcomes improved, the reform of institutional rules and frameworks governing macroeconomic policy lagged behind, undermining the long-term sustainability of stability.
• Financial system and capital account: The macroeconomic agenda of the 1990s was incomplete in addressing financial sector vulnerabilities and capital account imbalances, leaving economies exposed to shocks.
• Private sector perception: The effectiveness of macroeconomic stability in promoting growth depends on how it is perceived by the private sector. If stability is not seen as durable, it fails to encourage investment and growth.

4. External Shocks and Financial Vulnerability

• Real and financial shocks: The 1990s saw a decline in the volatility of terms of trade and net capital flows, but the frequency of large capital flow reversals (sudden stops) remained high.
• Exchange rate crises: The number of exchange rate crises in developing countries decreased slightly compared to the 1980s but remained higher than in the 1960s and 1970s.
• Contagion effect: External financial disturbances spread rapidly, contributing to crises and reinforcing the need for stronger domestic institutional frameworks.

Key Findings

• Limited impact of macroeconomic stability on growth: The growth benefits of macroeconomic stability were not as substantial as anticipated, suggesting that the growth payoff may have been overestimated.
• Persistent macroeconomic fragility: Many developing countries continued to face significant macroeconomic vulnerabilities, particularly in the financial sector and capital account management.
• Need for complementary reforms: To achieve sustainable growth, macroeconomic stability must be supported by broader structural reforms, including microeconomic and institutional changes.
• Institutional foundation: The lack of strong institutional underpinnings for macroeconomic policies undermined their effectiveness and long-term impact.

Conclusion

The 1990s represented a period of partial success in achieving macroeconomic stability in developing countries. While some indicators showed improvement, the overall stability was not enough to ensure growth. The paper emphasizes that the reform agenda was insufficient in depth and breadth, and that macroeconomic stability alone cannot deliver growth without complementary reforms. The experience of the 1990s serves as a cautionary tale about the need for a more comprehensive and durable approach to macroeconomic reform.