亚开行-评估美中贸易争端的影响（英文）-2020.9-54页_1mb

报告摘要

Summary of the Document: Assessing the Impact of the United States–People’s Republic of China Trade Dispute Using a Multiregional Computable General Equilibrium Model

Core Content

This document presents a study on the economic impact of the ongoing United States–People’s Republic of China (US–PRC) trade dispute, using a multiregional computable general equilibrium (CGE) model based on the 2017 Asian Development Bank (ADB) Multi-regional Input-Output Tables (MRIOT). The authors analyze three scenarios: the baseline (business-as-usual), scenario 1 representing the bilateral measures implemented as of May 2019, and scenario 2 simulating a full-scale tariff war with an additional 25% tariff on all bilateral imports. The study quantifies the macroeconomic effects on the US, PRC, and other Asian economies.

Main Viewpoints

Trade Dispute Background: The US–PRC trade dispute began in 2017 and has been a significant source of global economic uncertainty. It is seen as an example of the "Thucydides' trap," where a rising power challenges a dominant one, potentially leading to conflict.
Protectionism Trends: The rise in protectionism since the global financial crisis has impacted the share of world trade affected by discriminatory measures. The US has increasingly used Section 301 and 232 investigations to justify trade actions, which have led to retaliatory measures from the PRC.
CGE Model Use: A static multiregional CGE model is used to simulate the effects of trade measures on output, employment, consumption, and investment. The model is calibrated using the ADB MRIOT and includes detailed data on trade flows, tariffs, and economic structures.
Scenario Outcomes:
- Scenario 1 (May 2019 Measures): Leads to a GDP contraction of 0.17% in the US and 0.36% in the PRC. Employment, consumption, and investment also decline by 0.24%, 0.14%, and 0.45% in the US, and by 0.55%, 0.20%, and 0.64% in the PRC, respectively.
- Scenario 2 (Full-Scale Tariff War): Results in a larger contraction of trade flows, leading to more severe declines in GDP, employment, consumption, and investment in both economies.
- Trade Diversion: Other Asian economies, particularly Japan, Malaysia, Republic of Korea, and Viet Nam, benefit from trade diversion. Export-competing sectors in these countries benefit, while sectors supplying to the PRC suffer.
Investor Confidence: A decrease in investor confidence could amplify the negative effects of the trade dispute. The authors simulate a scenario where PRC investment further decreases by 1%, leading to a 1.1% contraction in PRC GDP.
Trade Imbalance: The trade imbalance between the US and PRC has long historical roots, driven by the division of labor in international trade. The US is a major consumer, while the PRC provides low-end products and basic materials to the US and high-end technology and services to the PRC.
Global Impact: The trade dispute has caused global economic uncertainty. International organizations like the WTO, IMF, and World Bank have revised GDP forecasts downward. The ADB reduced its 2019 growth forecast for developing Asian economies from 5.7% to 5.4%.

Key Information

Model Structure: The study uses a static CGE model, which compares scenarios with and without policy shocks, assuming other factors remain constant. It also notes the existence of dynamic models that incorporate future economic pathways.
Data Sources: The model is calibrated using ADB MRIOT, which provides a high-resolution dataset of 35 sectors and 63 regions. Other datasets used include GTAP, WIOD, and Eora MRIO, each with different sector and regional resolutions.
Policy Scenarios:
- Baseline Scenario: Represents the trade relations without any tariff escalation.
- Scenario 1: Based on the actual trade measures up to May 2019, including tariffs on $300 billion of Chinese goods.
- Scenario 2: Full-scale tariff war with an additional 25% tariff on all bilateral imports.
Sectoral Impacts:
- Export-competing sectors in other Asian countries benefit from the trade dispute due to trade diversion.
- Sectors supplying to the PRC suffer due to reduced demand.
Limitations and Future Research: The study acknowledges the limitations of the model, particularly in terms of data quality and the assumption of constant trade structures. It suggests that future research could explore more detailed sectoral and regional effects, as well as the role of non-tariff barriers and global value chains.

Conclusion

The study concludes that the US–PRC trade dispute has significant negative effects on both economies, with scenario 2 leading to more severe economic contractions. While some Asian economies benefit from trade diversion, the overall impact is negative for the global economy. The authors emphasize the importance of understanding the broader implications of protectionist policies and the need for more nuanced analysis in future studies.

References and Appendices

The document includes a detailed timeline of the trade dispute (Table A1) and a summary of trade negotiation rounds (Table A2).
Appendices also contain information on economy and sector classification (A3), the structure of the multiregional social accounting matrix (A4), and the 2017 tariff levels for various economies (A5–A8).
Elasticity of substitution between inputs and goods is also discussed in appendices (A9–A11), which are crucial for the CGE model's accuracy.