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2004 Presidential Election Summary

Core Content Overview

This document presents a Pew Research Center survey conducted in August 2004, analyzing public opinion on the U.S. presidential election between George W. Bush and John Kerry. It highlights the political landscape, voter attitudes, and the impact of the Democratic Convention on candidate perceptions.

Key Findings

Economic Sentiment and Leadership Image

• Public Dissatisfaction: The American public remains largely dissatisfied with the national economy and President Bush's handling of it. Two-thirds (66%) rate the economy as "only fair" or "poor," while only 33% rate it as "excellent" or "good."
• Bush's Approval: 42% approve of Bush's economic leadership, while 52% disapprove.
• Kerry's Economic Advantage: Kerry has gained ground on the economy, with 52% of voters believing he can improve it better than Bush (37%), up from a 44% to 39% lead in March.
• Local Job Market: 34% of Americans believe jobs are plentiful in their local communities, up from 27% in early 2003. However, 55% still think jobs are difficult to find.
• Personal Financial Outlook: 70% of Americans believe their financial situation will improve in the coming year, up from 64% in September 2003.

Leadership and Character Traits

• Bush's Leadership Image: Bush maintains a strong leadership image, with 57% of voters seeing him as a "strong leader" compared to 34% for Kerry.
• Kerry's Issue Advantage: Kerry is seen as the better candidate on most domestic issues (economy, health care, education, jobs), but Bush retains the edge on national security and defending the country from terrorism.
• Character Traits: Bush is viewed more positively on traits like "stubborn" and "honest and truthful" (42% vs. 34% in May), while Kerry is seen as more "willing to take a stand" and "cares about people."

Voter Support and Commitment

• Registered Voter Support: The presidential race remains deadlocked, with 47% of registered voters favoring Kerry and 45% favoring Bush. Nader's support has dropped to 2%.
• Swing Voters: Only 22% of voters are undecided or may change their minds, down from 29% in February. Swing voters are more pessimistic about the economy than committed voters.
• Commitment Levels: Both Bush and Kerry supporters express strong commitment, with 83% and 84% respectively saying they are definitely decided not to vote for the opponent.

Gender and Demographic Divides

• Gender Gap: Women are more likely to favor Kerry (52%) than men (41%). Men are more supportive of Bush.
• Religious Affiliation: White evangelical Protestants strongly favor Bush (71% to 23%), while seculars (no religious affiliation) favor Kerry (67% to 23%).
• Vice Presidential Ratings: John Edwards (Kerry's VP) is more favorably rated than either Bush or Kerry. Dick Cheney is less popular, with 47% favorable to 41% unfavorable.

Impact of the Democratic Convention

• Kerry's Visibility: The Democratic Convention increased public familiarity with Kerry and bolstered his support.
• Anti-Bush Motivation: Most of Kerry's support is still driven by anti-Bush sentiment (51%), though his pro-Kerry support has increased from 30% in May to 43% in August.

Voter Engagement and Attention

• Attention to Campaign: 32% of voters follow the campaign very closely, up from 22% and 24% in 2000 and 1996.
• Thought Given to Election: 69% of voters have given "quite a lot" of thought to the election, with similar levels on both sides of the political divide.

Expectations of Election Outcome

• Election Prediction: 44% of voters expect Bush to win, compared to 37% for Kerry. This is largely driven by non-followers of the campaign.
• Close Followers: Those who follow the race closely are evenly split (44% for Kerry, 43% for Bush).

Summary of Key Issues and Candidates

Conclusion

The 2004 presidential race remains closely contested, with Kerry gaining on domestic issues and Bush maintaining a strong leadership image. Economic concerns dominate public sentiment, with widespread dissatisfaction and a slight improvement in personal financial outlook. Voter commitment is high, with fewer undecided voters than in previous cycles, and the Democratic Convention has not significantly shifted the balance in favor of Kerry. The race is still largely driven by anti-Bush sentiment, but both candidates have strong support bases.