2008-05-28-皮尤-McCain_s_Negatives_Mostly_Political,_Obama_s_More_Personal_46页_180kb

Summary of Key Findings

General Election Dynamics

• Candidates and Matchups: In the 2008 general election, Barack Obama led John McCain 48% to 47% among all registered voters. Among Democrats and Democratic-leaning voters, Obama opened a 13-point lead over Hillary Clinton in their party's nomination contest.
• Voting Patterns: Fully three-quarters of Obama supporters viewed their vote as supportive of him, while only 22% saw it as anti-McCain. Similarly, most McCain supporters viewed their vote as pro-McCain.

Candidate Perceptions

• Favorability and Unfavorable Views:
  • Barack Obama: Favorability decreased eight points from 59% to 51%, down particularly among white women (from 56% to 43%) and independents. Unfavorable views increased as voters cited his political beliefs (54%) or personal attributes (32%) as reasons.
  • John McCain: Favorability was marginal (48% favorable), unchanged from February, but unfavorable views noted political beliefs primarily, especially among Democrats, not personal attributes.
• Personal Characteristics: Exit polls and analyses highlight significant demographics where voters scored race and gender as impacting primaries; e.g., about one-third of voters felt race or gender disadvantaged candidate.

Core Issues

• Key Concerns: Economy (88%), jobs, healthcare, and energy surged in importance since 2004. Foreign policy was split, with some favoring change from the Bush era.
• Candidate Comparisons: On key issues like energy and healthcare, voters favored Obama; on foreign policy, there was slight disagreement with his toughness.

Voter Backlash and Demographics

• Clinton Supporters' Views on Obama: Clinton supporters (especially white) and women showed downturned views of Obama, especially as their candidate lost the nomination. Independents and white women were key in expressing unfavorable views.

National Conditions

• Dissatisfaction: One in every five Americans was dissatisfied with national direction, with wider partisan divides and specific concerns clustered around domestic issues.

Issue Priorities

• Domestic Focus: 61% prioritized domestic policy over foreign policy, consistent across political stances and candidates. Energy significantly rose as a primary concern.

Gender and Race Factors

• Role in Primaries: Minorities with lower education viewed negative image of Obama as linked to personal attributes rather than politics. African Americans and whites differed in how race and gender played roles in primary campaigns.

National Unity and Party Split

• Unification Predictions: Despite signs of divisions within the Democratic primary, most voters and swing groups still hoped for party cohesion around Obama. Among Republicans, support for McCain was predictable.