2012-10-28-皮尤-Presidential_Race_Dead_Even_Romney_Maintains_Turnout_Edge_51页_674kb

The 2012 presidential election race entered its final stages with a virtual dead heat between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney, as polls conducted in October 2012 showed identical support at 47% for both candidates among likely voters. Despite polls (conducted October 24-28, 2012, involving 1,678 registered voters) indicating little change, Obama maintained a slight edge among registered voters (48%) versus Romney (45%), but this narrowed with a slight advantage in likely voter polling reflecting Romney's turnout advantage as Election Day approached. Ratings and perceptions for both candidates remained largely stable since early October.

Key findings include:

• Election Status: The race was tied among likely voters, with 47% each, demonstrating high parity in support.
• Turnout Edge: Romne maintained a narrower, but significant, lead in voter turnout compared to Obama, driven largely by higher Republican voter engagement and promises to vote this year.
• Candidate Traits:
  • Obama held modest leads in empathy, consistency, and moderate positions, appearing more capable of connecting with ordinary Americans and taking balanced stands.
  • Romney was viewed positively on the economy (e.g., reducing the federal budget deficit by a 50-42% margin) and healthcare, but had mixed ratings on honesty and personal strength.
  • Debates had more positive impact on Romney perceptions than Obama's.
• Voter Support Patterns: Demographic splits were notable, with younger voters favoring Obama, older (Boomers/Silent Generation) and working-class whites showing inclination toward Romney. African Americans overwhelmingly supported Obama, while support waned among some groups like Democrats and Independents previously more inclined to back Obama, particularly in lower/middle-income brackets. Swing voters slightly favored Romney on issues like jobs and deficit.
• Uncertainty and Forecast: Many predicted high turnout, similar to previous high-turnout elections, yet polls showed no clear frontrunner in voter expectations (49% favored Obama, 31% favoring Romney).

These polls indicated a landscape of wide divisions on issues and large gaps in voter empathy and identification, setting the stage for an election heavily dependent on job performance and party commitments.