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2012 U.S. Presidential Election Summary

Core Content

This document provides an analysis of the 2012 U.S. presidential election, focusing on the public's views of Barack Obama and Mitt Romney, the Supreme Court, and economic issues. Conducted by the Pew Research Center between June 28 and July 9, 2012, the survey includes responses from 2,973 adults, with 2,373 being registered voters.

Main Points

Presidential Race

• Obama's Lead: Barack Obama maintains a lead over Mitt Romney, with 50% to 43% favorability among registered voters.
• Stable Preferences: There has been no significant shift in voter preferences since Romney secured the GOP nomination.
• Independent Voters: Independent voters remain evenly divided, with 46% supporting Obama and 45% supporting Romney.
• Party Identification: Democrats (88%) and Republicans (89%) continue to support their respective candidates, with Obama's lead stemming from the Democratic Party's advantage in party identification.
• Voter Enthusiasm: Romney supporters are more engaged than Obama supporters, with 70% of Romney voters giving a lot of thought to the election compared to 62% of Obama supporters.

Supreme Court and Health Care

• Supreme Court Favorability: The Supreme Court has seen a record high in unfavorable opinions (37%), with 51% of Americans expressing a negative view.
• Partisan Divide: Republicans are significantly more negative toward the Supreme Court than Democrats, with a 51% to 38% unfavorable-to-favorable split.
• Health Care Law: The public's opinion on the 2010 Affordable Care Act remains largely unchanged, with 47% approving and 43% disapproving. The court's ruling on the law has not shifted public sentiment significantly.
• Social Issues: Obama is seen as better reflecting views on social issues like abortion and gay rights (50% to 36%), and is favored on issues such as dealing with the problems of poor people (60% to 30%).

Economic Issues

• Job Situation: The job situation remains the top issue for voters, with 46% citing Romney and 42% citing Obama as the better candidate for improving jobs.
• Economy: Obama leads on improving economic conditions (48% to 42%), while Romney leads on reducing the federal budget deficit (50% to 36%).
• Economic News: Public perception of economic news is largely negative, with 40% saying it is mostly bad, and 55% saying it is a mix of good and bad.
• Gas Prices: News about gas prices has improved, with 31% of voters saying it is mostly good and 31% saying it is mostly bad, compared to 85% who said it was mostly bad in March.

Key Information

Issue Comparisons

Party Views

• Republican Party: 36% favorable, 59% unfavorable (down from 44% favorable in 2008).
• Democratic Party: 46% favorable, 49% unfavorable (down from 56% favorable in 2008).
• Independent Voters: 31% favorable, 61% unfavorable toward the Republican Party; 38% favorable, 54% unfavorable toward the Democratic Party.

2012 vs. 2008

• Economy: Obama leads by 6 points (48% to 42%) on improving the economy, down from a 15-point lead in 2008.
• Deficit: Romney leads by 14 points (50% to 36%) on reducing the budget deficit, reversing Obama's 20-point lead from 2008.
• Terrorism: Obama leads by 12 points (50% to 38%) on defending against terrorist attacks, up from a 15-point McCain lead in 2008.
• Foreign Policy: Obama leads by 8 points (48% to 40%) on making wise foreign policy decisions, reversing a 1-point McCain lead in 2008.
• Social Issues: Obama leads by 14 points (50% to 36%) on reflecting views on abortion and gay rights, consistent with 2008.
• Energy: Obama leads by 12 points (49% to 37%) on dealing with energy problems, down from an 18-point lead in 2008.

Top Issues

• Jobs: 33% of voters cite jobs as the top issue (unchanged from June).
• Health Care: 22% of voters cite health care as the top issue (up from 19% in June).
• Budget Deficit: 19% of voters cite the budget deficit as the top issue.
• Other Issues: Gay marriage and immigration each receive 4% of votes as top issues.

Conclusion

The 2012 presidential race shows Obama maintaining a lead over Romney, particularly on social issues and national security, while Romney holds an edge on economic issues like reducing the budget deficit. The Supreme Court has seen a sharp decline in favorability, driven largely by Republican discontent. Despite a poor economy, Obama's job approval has improved slightly, and the job situation remains the top issue for voters. Independents are split on both candidates and parties, with a significant shift in their views toward both parties being more negative.