2004-09-27-皮尤-Bush_Margin_Widens_Again,_Despite_Vulnerabilities_12页_45kb

Summary of Pew Research Center Poll (September 22-26, 2004)

Poll Results
This poll involved 948 registered voters and found a significant widening of George W. Bush's lead over John Kerry. The margin grew from 46%-46% in early September to 48%-40% in this survey, indicating Bush's improved position despite vulnerabilities.

Voter Confidence

• Less confidence in Bush on the Iraq situation (46% favorable now vs. 52% earlier); Kerry performed better head-to-head on Iraq primarily.
• Kerry continued to inspire confidence relative to Bush on the economy, though support did not increase.

Causes of Bush's Gain
Bush's support increase was largely attributed to perceived weaknesses in Kerry, especially on leadership, personal traits, and taking unpopular stands, rather than improved evaluations of Bush himself.

Personal Traits

• Bush's ratings remained stable on some traits, such as honesty and empathy, with no significant gain for Kerry.
• Kerry's ratings declined mildly on traits like honesty, while Bush maintained a strong lead on leadership and decision-making.

Demographic Breakdown

• Bush gains margin among men, young voters (under 30), and higher-income groups, but trails among women, less educated voters, African-Americans, and secular individuals.
• Among key groups: Bush leads by 50%-37% among high school education; Kerry holds an edge among African-Americans, though narrower than previous weeks.

Noteworthy Issues

• Kerry showed slight improvement in handling economy and individual issues like healthcare and Iraq compared to initial polls, but Bush maintains advantages on leadership and terrorism.

Methodology
Two nationwide surveys were conducted; each poll had a sample of 1,200 adults and a margin of error of ±3.5 percentage points based on registered voters. The results reflect sentiments pre-presidential election.

Relevance to Voters

• Approximately 42-63% of voters expressed some level of thought or vote leaning toward the candidates.

This analysis underscores a shifting political landscape, with concerns over Iraq and the economy dominating voter issues, yet not translating into Kerry's vote gain.