2004-10-30-皮尤-Slight_Bush_Margin_in_Final_Days_of_Campaign_23页_70kb

报告摘要

Poll Results: Pew Research Center's final pre-election poll conducted October 27-30, 2004, found President George W. Bush held a slight 48%-45% lead over John Kerry among 1,925 likely voters. Ralph Nader received 1%, and 6% were undecided.
Voter Turnout: Turnout is expected to be higher than previous elections, especially among younger voters. Overall, 57% of the voting age population is projected to vote.
Undecided Voters: Accounting for undecideds, Bush's margin slightly increases to 51%-48%. A quarter of voters (up from 12% in early October) now refuse to predict the outcome.
Campaign Influence: The bin Laden tape released on October 29 had no notable impact on voter preferences. Campaigns are heavily focusing on battleground states, with 60% of voters contacted personally.
Key Demographics: Bush leads among men, white evangelicals, and older voters. Kerry gains support among women with higher education and white Catholics. Geographic support is divided, with Bush strong in the South and Midwest, Kerry in the East and West.
Issue Influence: Voters prioritize the Iraq war and terrorism over economic issues, with 84% viewing the election outcome as highly significant.
Expected Outcome: Poll projects a narrow Bush victory, but with increased uncertainty compared to earlier polls. Bush's 39% strong support rate is unprecedented, indicating heightened enthusiasm among his supporters.

Registered Voters: Among all registered voters (2,408), the race is closely divided at 46%-45% Kerry-Bush, highlighting the importance of likely voter selection.
Policy Ratings: Voters favor Bush on Iraq (majority see U.S. military action as the right decision) and terrorism policy, but economic concerns are widespread, with 37% rating conditions as only fair or poor.
Early Voting: Both parties have promoted early voting, resulting in a roughly balanced split with 16% having voted early and 8% planning to.

This summary reflects the poll's neutral analysis and acknowledges potential for last-minute shifts in voter behavior and turnout.

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