2017-2018劳动力市场和薪资调查报告（英文版）_35页_2mb

报告摘要

Labor Market & Salary Report Summary

Core Content Overview

This report provides an analysis of China's labor market and wage developments in 2017, with a focus on economic growth, sectoral performance, and regional disparities. It also includes insights from a general survey conducted by the German Chamber of Commerce in China, highlighting expectations and challenges in the labor market.

Main Points

1. Labor Market Environment

Strong Growth: China's GDP growth in the first half of 2017 was 6.9%, surpassing the annual target of 6.5%. The services sector grew faster than the overall economy at 7.7%, indicating a shift towards a consumer-driven model.
Sectoral Growth: The tertiary sector, especially "other services" (healthcare, education, scientific research), grew the fastest at 11.4%, followed by transportation, storage, and postal services at 9.2%. Wholesale & retail and hospitality services also exceeded the economy's average. Finance services lagged at 3.8%.
Second Semester Outlook: Growth is expected to slow down, with an estimated annual GDP growth of 6.7% for 2017. Authorities are likely to focus on debt control and financial risk management, with monetary tightening expected.
Labor Market Structure: China has over 600 cities, with more than 15 megacities. The National Plan on New Urbanization aims to reduce migration pressure on major cities by relocating populations to other areas. The urban population reached 56.8% in 2016, with a target of 60.0% by 2020.
Demographics: China's population is aging, with over 200 million people aged 60. The working-age population is expected to decline by 23% by 2050. Life expectancy increased from 67.9 years (1981) to 76.3 years (2015), influencing retirement age policies.
Migrant Workers: In 2016, there were 281.1 million migrant workers, a 1.5% increase from the previous year. Most (88%) moved within their home provinces. Eastern and central regions account for 70% of the migrant population, with little growth in these areas. The government plans to grant urban hukou to 100 million migrant workers by 2020, but local governments are hesitant due to infrastructure costs.

2. Wage Developments in China

National Wage Growth: In 2016, wages grew by 8.9% YOY, down from 10.1% in 2015. The German Chamber estimates a 8.4% growth for 2017. The average annual wage in 2016 was RMB 67,569, up RMB 5,540 from 2015.
Per Capita Disposable Income: Grew by 6.3% in 2016, slower than wage growth. Urban income increased by 5.7% (RMB 33,616), while rural income grew by 6.2% (RMB 12,363).
Gini Coefficient: Increased from 0.462 (2015) to 0.465 (2016), showing rising inequality.
Provincial Wage Growth:
- East China: Highest wage growth at 9.1% in 2016, expected to slow to 8.5% in 2017.
- West China: Highest growth at 9.0% in 2016, with a slight recovery expected in 2017.
- Central China: Growth of 8.8% in 2016, projected to decrease to 7.5% in 2017.
- Northeast China: Lowest growth at 7.5%, with a 2.3% decrease compared to 2016.
Minimum Wage Adjustments: In 2017, only Shanghai, Shenzhen, Shaanxi, Fujian, and Shandong increased minimum wages. The average minimum wage growth was 3.3%, with average wage growth at 8.0%.

3. General Survey Results

Expected Wage Developments: German Chamber Companies expect continued wage growth, though at a slower pace. The Caixin services PMI dropped slightly to 51.6 in June 2017, below 52.8 in May, but still above 50, indicating expansion.
Wage Levels: The survey highlights wage levels and compensation perceptions, with a focus on service and manufacturing sectors. Productivity and wage determination are also key factors.
Collective Action & Trade Unions: Trade unions are playing an increasingly important role in wage negotiations.
HR Challenges: Retention and recruitment are significant concerns, especially in a slowing economy. Variable compensation components are being adjusted to align with performance and market conditions.
Foreigners: The report includes data on the employment and wage trends of foreign workers in China.

Key Information

Economic Growth: China's GDP growth in 2017Q1 was 6.9%, surpassing the annual target. The services sector outperformed the overall economy.
Wage Trends: National wage growth in 2016 was 8.9%, with regional disparities evident. The eastern region had the highest growth, while the northeastern region had the lowest.
Migrant Workers: The majority of migrant workers are concentrated in eastern and central China, with a decline in inter-provincial migration. Urbanization policies are aimed at reducing pressure on major cities.
Demographics & Retirement Age: The aging population and rising life expectancy are influencing retirement age policies, with no official changes yet.
Pension Fund: China's pension fund revenue grew by 25.4% in Q1 2017, but the surplus is not evenly distributed across regions. The government is exploring ways to expand investment options to ensure sustainability.