中国德国商会-2017-2018劳动力市场和薪资调查报告（英文版）-37页-2mb

Labor Market & Salary Report Summary

Core Content Overview

This report provides a detailed analysis of the labor market and wage developments in China for 2017 and early 2018, with a focus on the economic environment, employment trends, and wage growth across different regions and industries. It also highlights the situation for German companies operating in China, including their wage expectations and HR challenges.

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Main Points

Economic Environment

• GDP Growth: China's GDP grew at 6.9% in the first half of 2017, surpassing the official annual growth target of 6.5%. However, slower growth is expected for the second half, with a probable annual growth of 6.7% for 2017.
• Sector Contributions: The services sector dominated the economy, contributing 54.1% of GDP, while manufacturing/mining remained the highest single industry contributor at 34.4%.
• Growth Drivers: Economic growth is still heavily reliant on capital investment, with high debt levels (2.77 times GDP) being a key concern.
• Price Developments:
  • CPI: Remained in a moderate range (0.5%–2.0%), with healthcare and education contributing most to upward pressure.
  • PPI: Rose to 7.8% in February 2017 due to excess capacity cuts and construction demand, but began to cool down by May 2017.

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Labor Market Developments

• Urbanization: The urbanization rate reached 56.8% in 2016, aligning with the 2020 target of 60%. This trend supports the growth of the services sector and helps mitigate the shrinking labor force.
• Migrant Workers:
  • There were 281.1 million migrant workers in 2016, representing a 1.5% increase from the previous year.
  • Most migrations (88%) were within the home province, while inter-provincial migration stagnated.
  • Migrant workers are increasingly shifting towards the services sector, particularly in retail and real estate.
• Job Market:
  • In 2017Q2, the ratio of job applicants to vacancies dropped to 35.8, a 20% decrease from the previous year, indicating a more competitive job market.
  • Top cities for job vacancies and applications included Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Guangzhou, and emerging Tier-1 cities like Chengdu, Nanjing, and Hangzhou.
  • Key sectors with high demand were sales professionals, administration/logistics, software development, and finance.

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National Wage Developments

• Wage Growth:
  • In 2016, wages grew by 8.9%, below the double-digit growth seen in 2015.
  • The average annual wage in China was RMB 67,569 in 2016, up RMB 5,540 from 2015.
  • Per capita disposable income grew by 6.3%, slower than wage growth.
• Regional Variations:
  • The East region had the highest wage increase at 9.1% in 2016, while the Northeast region saw the lowest at 7.5%.
  • Regional governments are hesitant to increase minimum wages due to concerns about competitiveness.

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Wage Developments at German Companies

• Expected Wage Growth:
  • German Chamber companies in China expect average wage increases of 5.90% in 2018, reflecting a general downward trend since 2012.
  • Beijing and Taicang/Kunshan are the only regions expecting wage growth above last year's level (6.00% and 6.19%, respectively).
• Role-Specific Growth:
  • All roles (production workers, junior, mid-level, and senior professionals) are expected to see lower wage increases compared to 2017.
• HR Challenges:
  • Recruiting qualified staff, rising labor costs, and retaining professionals are the top HR concerns.
  • Common variable compensation components include supplementary medical insurance, annual medical check-ups, and cash benefits such as sales commissions and allowances.

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Productivity and HR Environment

• Productivity Sentiment:
  • 64.0% of surveyed companies expect productivity gains to match wage increases.
  • 58.2% believe productivity growth will likely keep pace with wage increases in the future.
• Wage Determination:
  • Wage levels are influenced by various factors, including economic performance and industry demand.
  • There is no significant collective action or trade union influence on wage determination.
• Foreign Workers:
  • The report includes data and insights on the employment and compensation of foreigners in China.

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Key Notes and Data Sources

• The report references data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), Caixin / Markit PMI, Zhaopin.com, and the German Chamber of Commerce in China.
• The Gini coefficient increased slightly from 0.462 to 0.465 in 2016, still below the 2012–2014 levels.
• The government is working on reforms to improve pension funds and urbanization policies, though progress is slow in some regions due to infrastructure and investment concerns.

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Summary of Trends

• Economic Transition: China is moving towards a more consumer-driven economy, with the services sector growing faster than the overall GDP.
• Labor Market Shift: A shrinking working-age population and aging demographic are pushing for changes in the labor market, including potential reforms to the retirement age and hukou system.
• Wage Growth: National wage growth slowed in 2016, and it is expected to continue to do so in 2017, with regional disparities.
• German Companies: Expect modest wage increases, with regional variations, and face challenges in recruitment and retention.

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Conclusion

The labor market in China continues to evolve, driven by urbanization and the shift towards a more service-based economy. While wage growth remains moderate, the increasing demand for skilled professionals and the need for productivity improvements are key challenges for businesses. The German Chamber of Commerce in China remains closely monitored by the services PMI, which reflects the private sector's confidence in the market. Overall, the report underscores the importance of balancing economic growth with labor market sustainability and wage management.