2016年-CEPS欧洲政策研究中心_Potential_Economic_Effects_of_TTIP_for_the_Netherlands_and_the_EU_31页_861kb

报告摘要

Summary of "Potential Economic Effects of TTIP for the Netherlands and the EU"

Core Content

The paper examines the potential economic effects of the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) on the Netherlands and the European Union (EU). It uses a scenario-based approach with a computational general equilibrium (CGE) model called WorldScan to simulate the impacts of TTIP. The study focuses on the economic implications of TTIP, excluding political and regulatory convergence aspects.

Main Objectives

To assess the economic effects of TTIP for the Netherlands, specifically focusing on trade, GDP, consumption, and labor market outcomes.
To evaluate the impact of TTIP on both the EU and the US, with a particular emphasis on the role of non-tariff barriers (NTBs) in driving economic gains.

Key Findings

Economic Effects

Bilateral Trade Increase: Under the "full" TTIP scenario, which includes both tariff elimination and NTB cost reductions, US-Dutch bilateral trade is expected to double by 2030.
GDP and Consumption Growth: The Netherlands is projected to experience a 1.7% increase in GDP and a 3.1% rise in consumption per capita by 2030, which are higher than the EU average.
EU and US Gains: The EU and the US are expected to see moderate economic gains, with around 1% increases in income by 2030.
Trade Diversion: TTIP leads to trade diversion effects, with Dutch exports to other EU countries decreasing by 2% and to third countries by roughly 3%. These effects result in a relatively small decrease in trade and GDP for non-TTIP regions.

Labor Market Effects

Wage Increases: Full TTIP implementation is expected to raise Dutch average wages by more than 2%, with both low- and high-skill workers benefiting.
Income Inequality: TTIP is unlikely to significantly affect wage or income inequality.
Job Reallocation: Approximately 1.5% of total jobs (around 114,000) are expected to be reallocated across sectors over a 13-year period. This is much smaller compared to the annual job creation and destruction rate of 13% (around one million jobs).

Main Pillars of TTIP

Tariff Elimination: The current average tariff level between the US and EU is relatively low (around 3%), so eliminating these tariffs is expected to have limited economic effects.
Regulatory Cooperation: TTIP aims to reduce NTB costs through improved regulatory transparency and mutual recognition of procedures. This is considered the most impactful component of TTIP.
Other Behind-the-Border Rules: These rules, while less economically significant, are part of the broader TTIP framework and include legal and institutional aspects.

Methodology

The study uses the WorldScan CGE model, which is based on the GTAP-9 database and includes 21 goods and services sectors and 33 countries.
NTB Estimation: The authors employ a gravity model approach to estimate NTB cost reductions, using the same econometric methods as Egger et al. (2015).
Scenario Analysis: Three scenarios are simulated:
- Tariffs Only (A): Full elimination of tariffs.
- NTBs Only (B): 50% reduction in NTB costs for manufacturing and services.
- Full TTIP (C): Combination of both tariff and NTB reductions.

Additional Economic Effects

The study acknowledges that the potential economic effects may be underestimated due to the exclusion of factors such as public procurement provisions, increased foreign direct investment (FDI), and dynamic trade effects.
The economic benefits from TTIP are expected to be more pronounced in specific sectors, particularly those affected by regulatory divergence, such as the automobile industry.

Conclusion

TTIP is expected to generate positive but moderate economic gains for the EU and the US.
For the Netherlands, the benefits are more substantial, with higher GDP and consumption growth.
The labor market will experience some displacement, but the overall impact is expected to be manageable.
The study highlights the importance of NTB reductions in driving the economic benefits of TTIP, as they are more significant than tariff reductions.

Main Economic Studies on TTIP

Francois et al. (2013): A reference study used by the European Commission and DG Trade, which estimates TTIP's economic impact using a CGE model and previously estimated NTB levels.
Egger et al. (2015): Provides the most up-to-date and detailed analysis, using gravity equations and a standard CGE model. It estimates an 80% increase in US-EU bilateral trade and 5% increase in total trade.
Berden and Francois (2015): Reviews the methods used to quantify NTBs within TTIP and discusses the challenges of estimating them accurately.

Technical Notes

The WorldScan model assumes that only a fraction (usually 50% or less) of NTB costs can be reduced due to legal and political constraints.
The study uses ad valorem equivalents (AVE) to translate NTB cost reductions into trade cost estimates for the CGE model.
The sectoral aggregation in the WorldScan model differs slightly from that of Egger et al. (2015), leading to minor differences in the estimated NTB levels.