2024年全球连通性报告（英）_312页_27mb

DHL Global Connectedness Report 2024 Summary

Core Content

The DHL Global Connectedness Report 2024 presents a comprehensive analysis of globalization's current state and trajectory, based on data from 181 countries, representing 99.7% of the global economy and 98.7% of the world's population. The report challenges the prevailing narrative of deglobalization, emphasizing that globalization has not gone into reverse and has, in fact, reached a record high in 2022, with minimal decline in 2023.

Key Findings

Globalization Has Not Gone Into Reverse

• Despite geopolitical tensions, wars, and protectionism, global flows of trade, capital, information, and people have remained resilient.
• The DHL Global Connectedness Index reached a record high of 25% in 2022 and remained close to that level in 2023.
• International flows have grown faster than domestic activity in both 2021 and 2022, contributing to the record high in global connectedness.

Globalization and Regionalization

• There is no clear evidence of a general shift toward regionalization.
• Trade regionalization is limited, with most flows occurring over stable or longer distances.
• Only North America shows a clear nearshoring trend.
• International flows are already highly regionalized, with roughly half of trade, capital, information, and people flows taking place within major world regions.

U.S.-China and Russia-Europe Ties

• U.S.-China ties have diminished, with the share of flows involving each other falling by about one-quarter since 2016.
• Despite this, the U.S. and China remain the most connected pair of countries globally.
• Russia has decoupled from Europe and other Western-aligned economies, with a significant drop in trade and investment flows.
• The U.S.-aligned and China-aligned blocs have seen trade growth return to pre-pandemic levels, excluding Russia.

Information Flows

• The globalization of information flows has stalled in recent years.
• International patenting has continued to grow, but charges for foreign intellectual property and scientific coauthorship have declined.
• U.S.-China tensions have contributed to reduced international research collaboration.

People Flows

• People flows were heavily impacted by the pandemic but have shown a strong recovery in 2023.
• International travel reached 88% of pre-pandemic levels.
• Visa-free travel between a record number of countries in 2023 boosted international tourism.
• International migration and education flows have also increased.

Corporate Globalization

• Corporate globalization continues to advance, with companies earning more sales abroad and investing more internationally.
• The share of global output produced outside of home countries remains steady.
• Cross-border mergers and acquisitions and greenfield FDI have increased in value, though the pace of growth has slowed.

Country Rankings

World's Most Globally Connected Countries

1. Singapore
2. Netherlands
3. Ireland
4. Luxembourg
5. Malta
6. Switzerland
7. Belgium
8. United Arab Emirates
9. United Kingdom
10. Hong Kong SAR, China

Countries with Largest International Flows Relative to Domestic Activity

1. Singapore
2. Luxembourg
3. Malta
4. Hong Kong SAR, China
5. Ireland
6. Netherlands
7. United Arab Emirates
8. Belgium
9. Seychelles
10. Cyprus

Countries with Largest Connectedness Increases Since 2001

1. United Arab Emirates
2. Malta
3. Djibouti
4. Slovenia
5. Mozambique
6. Singapore
7. Netherlands
8. Cyprus
9. Georgia
10. Qatar

Countries with Broadest Geographic Reach of International Flows

1. United Kingdom
2. United States
3. Netherlands
4. Switzerland
5. Israel
6. Germany
7. Japan
8. Sweden
9. Brazil
10. Italy

Main Points

• Globalization is not ending, as evidenced by the record high levels of international flows in 2022 and their maintenance in 2023.
• Regionalization is not a widespread trend, and most flows still occur over longer distances.
• U.S.-China ties have weakened, but they remain the largest international flows between any two countries.
• Russia has decoupled from Europe, but this has not led to a broader split of the global economy.
• Information flows have stalled, but they remain a critical component of globalization.
• Corporate globalization continues, with firms expanding internationally and increasing their global output.

Conclusion

The report concludes that while there are challenges to globalization, the overall trend remains one of growth and resilience. Leaders should focus on expanding the benefits of globalization and managing its challenges effectively. The DHL Global Connectedness Index highlights the importance of maintaining a balanced perspective, recognizing both the strengths and vulnerabilities of a globally connected world.

Methodology and Data Sources

• The report is based on the analysis of nearly 9 million data points.
• It measures international flows relative to domestic activity across 13 flow types: trade, capital, information, and people.
• The methodology includes tracking geopolitical distance and analyzing trends in trade, investment, and information flows.

Notes and Additional Insights

• The 25% depth index represents the global balance between international and domestic activity.
• The index is scaled from 0% (completely separate countries) to 100% (a "frictionless" world).
• The report acknowledges the role of negativity bias and novelty bias in shaping public perception of globalization.
• It emphasizes that globalization is not a zero-sum game and that most countries are not moving toward a split into rival blocs.
• The report also highlights the resilience of global flows and the importance of data-driven insights in understanding globalization's trajectory.