2024_年_DHL_全球连通性报告_312页_27mb

DHL Global Connectedness Report 2024 Summary

Core Content

The DHL Global Connectedness Report 2024 presents an in-depth analysis of the current state and trajectory of globalization, based on data from 181 countries. It challenges the common perception that globalization is in decline, highlighting that global connectedness reached a record high in 2022 and remained close to that level in 2023. The report offers a nuanced view of how globalization is evolving in the face of geopolitical tensions, protectionism, and the ongoing impacts of the pandemic.

Main Findings

Globalization Has Not Gone Into Reverse

• Global connectedness reached a record high of 25% in 2022 and remained stable in 2023, indicating that international flows of trade, capital, information, and people have not retreated to domestic activity.
• Despite the rise of geopolitical tensions, global flows have proven highly resilient, countering the narrative of deglobalization.
• Trade growth played a crucial role in maintaining global connectedness, with international trade reaching a record high in 2022 and expected to grow faster than GDP in 2024.

U.S.-China Ties and Geopolitical Shifts

• U.S.-China trade and flows have declined since 2016, with a quarter reduction in mutual flows.
• However, the U.S. and China remain the most interconnected pair of countries, with larger flows than any other country pair.
• Russia's shift away from Europe and other Western-aligned economies is notable, but no broader split of the global economy into rival blocs has occurred.

Regionalization and Nearshoring

• There is no general pattern of regionalization in international flows, with most flows still occurring over longer distances.
• North America is the only major region showing a clear nearshoring trend, while most flows remain stable or long-distance.
• Friendshoring and regionalization are not new trends, as countries already engage more with nearby and aligned partners.

Corporate Globalization

• Corporate globalization continues to advance, with companies earning more sales abroad and announcing higher-value international expansion projects.
• Mergers and acquisitions and foreign production of global output remain stable, showing that firms are still committed to international operations.

Information Flows

• Information flows have grown the most over the past two decades but have stalled in recent years.
• International scientific collaboration and intellectual property use have seen declines, partly due to U.S.-China tensions.

People Flows

• International travel has recovered to 88% of pre-pandemic levels in 2023 and is on track for a full recovery by 2024.
• International migration and education have also increased, showing continued global interaction in these areas.

Key Country Rankings

World's Most Globally Connected Countries (Top 10)

1. Singapore
2. Netherlands
3. Ireland
4. Luxembourg
5. Malta
6. Switzerland
7. Belgium
8. United Arab Emirates
9. United Kingdom
10. Hong Kong SAR, China

Countries with Largest International Flows Relative to Domestic Activity (Top 10)

1. Singapore
2. Luxembourg
3. Malta
4. Hong Kong SAR, China
5. Ireland
6. Netherlands
7. United Arab Emirates
8. Belgium
9. Seychelles
10. Cyprus

Countries with Largest Connectedness Increases Since 2001 (Top 10)

1. United Arab Emirates
2. Malta
3. Djibouti
4. Slovenia
5. Mozambique
6. Singapore
7. Netherlands
8. Cyprus
9. Georgia
10. Qatar

Countries with Broadest Geographic Reach of International Flows (Top 10)

1. United Kingdom
2. United States
3. Netherlands
4. Switzerland
5. Israel
6. Germany
7. Japan
8. Sweden
9. Brazil
10. Italy

Conclusion and Recommendations

• The report concludes that globalization has not given way to regionalization, and that global flows are still growing despite challenges.
• Leaders should maintain a balanced perspective, acknowledging the benefits of globalization while addressing its challenges.
• Fact-based debates and policy reforms are essential to ensure that globalization continues to benefit all societies.
• The report emphasizes the importance of data-driven insights and international cooperation to sustain the benefits of a connected world.

Methodology and Data Sources

• The report is based on nearly 9 million data points, tracking flows of trade, capital, information, and people.
• The DHL Global Connectedness Index measures globalization depth on a scale from 0% (no international flows) to 100% (a frictionless world).
• The methodology includes country-level and global trends, with trade and capital given more weight than information and people flows.

Notes

• The report acknowledges the resilience of global flows in the face of geopolitical and economic challenges.
• It highlights that globalization is not a myth, and that international activity remains substantial.
• The resilience of globalization is attributed to five factors: substantial benefits, limited current globalization, regionalization not new, multipolarity supporting globalization, and companies adapting creatively.

Final Thoughts

• The DHL Global Connectedness Index remains a valuable tool for understanding the state of globalization and its future trajectory.
• The report encourages policy makers and business leaders to continue fostering global interconnectedness while managing its risks.