亚开行-尼泊尔连通性改善的经济影响分析（英文）-2020.11-28页_633kb

Economic Impact Analysis of Improved Connectivity in Nepal

Core Content

This working paper analyzes the economic impact of improved connectivity in Nepal, focusing on ongoing and planned infrastructure development projects, including roads, railways, air transport, and inland waterways. The study uses the IDE-GSM (Institute of Developing Economies - Geographical Simulation Model) to simulate the effects of these projects on regional and national economies, including trade, migration, and agglomeration effects.

Main Viewpoints

• Improved connectivity enhances Nepal's export competitiveness and facilitates trade with neighboring countries, particularly India.
• Infrastructure development is a key priority for the Government of Nepal, supported by ADB and India.
• IDE-GSM is a multiregional and multisectoral model that captures agglomeration, urbanization, and the effects of different transport modes.
• The model is used to simulate economic outcomes over a 20-year period, starting from the base year of 2010, and evaluates the impact of different scenarios on GDP, GRDP, trade flows, and market access.

Key Information

1. Current Infrastructure Projects in Nepal

• Roads: The East-West highway is the main focus, with sections between Narayangarh and Butwal (160 km) and Kamala and Kanchanpur (85 km) being upgraded to four lanes.
• Railways: The Janakpur railway (35 km) connects India and Nepal and has been upgraded to broad gauge. Another railway line between Raxaul (India) and Sirsiya ICD (Nepal) is under development.
• Air Transport: The Gautam Buddha International Airport near Lumbini is being upgraded, while Tribhuvan International Airport in Kathmandu is being strengthened.
• Inland Waterways: A new inland waterway from Kolkata (India) to Nepal is planned to improve trade through Birgunj and other border points.

2. Trade Facilitation and Customs Reforms

• Nepal has committed to the WTO Trade Facilitation Agreement (TFA), aiming to simplify customs procedures and reduce trade costs.
• The New Customs Act incorporating TFA is under consideration for parliamentary approval.
• The implementation of TFA is expected to reduce customs clearance time and improve trade efficiency.

3. Simulation Methodology

• The IDE-GSM model is used to simulate economic outcomes, including GDP, GRDP, price indices, wage rates, and population distribution.
• The model considers subnational economic data, logistics networks, and agglomeration effects.
• Simulations are run for 20 years, comparing the baseline scenario (no new infrastructure) with development scenarios (with new infrastructure).

4. Simulation Results

• Scenario 1 (ongoing projects) results in an estimated $355 million increase in GDP in 2030, or 0.9% growth, compared to the baseline.
• Scenario 2 (planned connectivity with India) yields a much smaller impact of $1.2 million, or 0.003% growth, due to fewer projects included.
• The economic impact is primarily felt in Nepal and neighboring countries, especially the PRC, Republic of Korea, and Singapore.
• Japan and the US have negative economic impacts in Scenario 1, but these are negligible in scale.
• The mode of transport shifts significantly in Scenario 2, with a major shift from road to rail and inland waterways, which is more impactful than GDP changes.

Model Strengths and Challenges

Strengths

• Subnational analysis: The model allows for detailed analysis at the district level.
• Multi-mode transport integration: It includes roads, railways, air, and inland waterways.
• Agglomeration effect: The model captures how infrastructure projects can lead to industrial and population concentration.
• Policy evaluation: It serves as a tool for policy recommendation and project prioritization.

Challenges

• Exclusion of capital: The model does not include capital stock as a factor, limiting its ability to fully capture economic growth mechanisms.
• Assumptions about labor mobility: The model assumes no cross-border labor movement, which may affect the accuracy of results for countries like Nepal with significant overseas labor migration.
• Non-path dependency: The model does not account for the sequence of projects, which can influence economic outcomes.
• Leontief vs. Cobb-Douglas function: The model may not fully capture the substitutability of inputs, as it uses a Leontief function.

Conclusion

The study highlights that improved connectivity in Nepal, particularly through road, rail, and air infrastructure, has a positive economic impact, especially in Scenario 1. While Scenario 2 also shows some benefits, the impact is smaller and more focused on mode of transport rather than GDP. The IDE-GSM model provides a comprehensive framework for analyzing these impacts, but it has limitations in capturing capital accumulation, labor mobility, and project sequence. These findings support the importance of continued investment in infrastructure and trade facilitation for Nepal's economic development.