2021-12-22-牛津经济研究院-Eurozone_weekly_economic_briefing_Gloomy_outlook_just_before_Christmas_6页_348kb

报告摘要

The economic outlook for the Eurozone is gloomy, driven by the Omicron variant's spread and the holiday season. Expect a surge in infections, forcing governments to tighten restrictions further to control contagion.
Rising infections and stricter government measures, particularly in Italy after the Netherlands example, pose significant risks to economic activity.
Consumer confidence is at its lowest since March. The Oxford Economic Tracker, now at its lowest level since late-May, shows a continuous sixth weekly decline, indicating a loss of momentum, especially in consumer demand.

Omicron poses high risks to the short-term economic outlook.
The worsening consumer confidence situation adds to economic uncertainties.
Further deterioration across various indicators challenges upward forecasts. Economic data continues to show weakness, including gas price hikes due to disrupted supplies.
The upcoming end of 2021 season suggests 2021 GDP growth may be slightly higher than initially expected (around 5% vs 4% expected in early 2021), driven by stronger-than-anticipated rebounds in Italy and France. However, this is offset by larger than expected inflation misses.

Growth is downgraded. A further downward revision to GDP forecasts is expected for early-January due to headwinds from Omicron, holiday slump, and potentially weaker private consumption.
Given Omicron's unknowns, the outlook remains uncertain. The recovery will likely be gradual and unable to fully counter the weakness in Q4 2021 and Q1 2022.

Key data includes retail sales, inflation figures, consumer confidence, and PMIs (services, manufacturing, composite).
Particular attention should be paid to business and consumer sentiment surveys and inflation data.

Omicron: Will determine near-term trajectory.
Economic Recovery: Gradual, dependence on Omicron course and supply chain resolution.
GDP (Q4): Slump expected due to holiday slowdown.
Inflation: Ongoing concerns remain. Energy prices remain high, food prices rising, core inflation slowing.
Monetary Policy: ECB likely to taper QE under high inflation and uncertainty.

Omicron: May see Italy implement stricter measures soon.
Inflation: Germany's headline inflation is expected to slow, Italy's rises, Spain's continues climb. Energy remains a significant factor.

GDP: Growth in Q1 2022 is estimated at 5.2% while inflation will moderate from Q4 highs (4.4%) but remain above central bank targets (around 3.7%).
Interests: ECB likely maintains low rates but may taper asset purchases.