2023-07-05-IMF-企业杠杆与繁荣萧条周期（英）_39页_711kb

Firm Leverage and Boom-Bust Cycles: Summary

This working paper examines the dynamic relationship between firm leverage (debt levels) and real economic outcomes, utilizing data from 24 European economies (2000-2018) and a large sample of firms. Key findings include:

• Short-term Effects: Expansions in firm credit and leverage boost employment and investment in the short term, but these positive effects fade in the medium term.
• Medium-term Effects: Leverage buildups lead to a decline in employment and investment growth, accompanied by increased volatility in employment. This is attributed to rising financial constraints, such as higher debt servicing costs, which hinder production and innovation.
• Boom-Bust Cycles: Leverage expansions predict employment and investment boom-bust cycles, regardless of whether measured at the macro or micro level. These cycles are exacerbated during financial tightening.
• Policy Implications: The study supports a "lean against the wind" approach, suggesting that policies promoting excessive borrowing should be moderated to mitigate medium-term risks. Tightening financial conditions disproportionately affect highly leveraged firms.

This research highlights the role of firm financial health in stabilizing the economy and underscores the need for macroprudential measures to prevent credit-driven instability.