IMF-企业杠杆与繁荣萧条周期（英）-2023.6-39页_716kb

This IMF Working Paper, authored by Can Sever, examines the dynamic relationship between firm leverage and economic cycles in 20 European economies from 2000 to 2018, using both aggregate and firm-level data. The study demonstrates that expansions in credit to firms initially boost employment and investment in the short term but lead to declines in the medium term. Similar patterns are observed at the firm level, with leverage buildups linked to boom-bust cycles in employment and investment growth, often associated with increased volatility. Financial constraints, such as higher debt service ratios, and tightening aggregate financial conditions exacerbate these medium-term negative effects. The findings support the "lean against the wind" policy approach, suggesting timely measures to mitigate risks from credit booms rather than relying on later monetary tightening. This has implications for policymakers, especially in post-COVID contexts, where high leverage could heighten financial stability risks.

Key findings include:

• Short-term boost to employment and investment, but medium-term decline.
• Robustness tests confirm results across industries and firm sizes.
• Financial channel plays a significant role in medium-term outcomes.

Policy recommendations emphasize proactive tools to address leverage buildups and balance short-term gains with long-term stability.