2025年全球电动汽车展望报告_173页_3mb

报告摘要

Global EV Outlook 2025 Summary

Core Content

The Global EV Outlook 2025 is an annual report by the International Energy Agency (IEA) that provides insights into the global trends, policies, and future projections for electric mobility. It highlights the continued growth of electric vehicles (EVs) across the world, focusing on electric cars, other light-duty vehicles, and heavy-duty vehicles. The report is developed with the support of the Electric Vehicles Initiative (EVI), a multi-governmental policy forum aimed at accelerating EV adoption.

Main Points

Global EV Market Trends

Electric car sales exceeded 17 million in 2024, representing over 20% of all new car sales.
The increase in sales in 2024 was 3.5 million, surpassing the total number of electric cars sold in 2020.
China remained the largest EV market, with 11 million electric cars sold in 2024, accounting for over half of global sales.
Electric cars now represent 1 in 10 cars on Chinese roads.
Europe saw stagnant sales in 2024 due to reduced subsidies, but maintained a 20% sales share.
United States experienced 10% year-on-year growth, with electric cars accounting for over 1 in 10 of all new car sales.
Emerging markets in Asia and Latin America saw over 60% growth in 2024, with sales reaching nearly 600,000.
Southeast Asia had nearly 50% growth, with electric cars representing 9% of all sales in the region.
Brazil saw electric car sales more than double, reaching 125,000 in 2024.
Africa also saw more than double sales, but electric cars still represent less than 1% of total sales on the continent.
Chinese imports accounted for 85% of EV sales in Brazil and Thailand, and 75% of growth in other emerging markets.

Future Projections

Global electric car sales are expected to exceed 20 million in 2025, representing over 25% of all car sales.
By 2030, the EV share in global car sales is projected to exceed 40% under current policy settings.
China is expected to lead with around 80% of EV sales by 2030.
Europe aims for close to 60% of EV sales by 2030, driven by CO₂ targets.
United States is projected to reach 20% of EV sales by 2030, lower than previous projections.
Southeast Asia is expected to reach 25% of EV sales by 2030, supported by policy and domestic manufacturing.

EV Affordability and Competitiveness

Battery electric car prices fell globally in 2024, but price gaps with conventional cars still persist in many markets.
In Germany, battery electric cars were 20% more expensive than conventional cars.
In the US, battery electric cars were 30% more expensive.
In China, two-thirds of EVs were cheaper than conventional cars, without incentives.
Chinese EVs are more competitive in emerging markets, often being cheaper than local models.

EV Manufacturing and Trade

China is the world’s EV manufacturing hub, responsible for over 70% of global production.
Chinese manufacturers dominate the domestic market with 80% of sales.
Global EV trade grew by 20% in 2024, with imports now accounting for almost 20% of global sales.
China accounted for 40% of global exports, nearly 1.25 million EVs.
EU is a net exporter, with over 800,000 exports, mainly to Europe and North America.
US remains a net importer, with 40% increase in imports and 15% decrease in exports.

Charging Infrastructure

Public charging stations have doubled in the past two years, but not kept pace with EV deployment in the US and UK.
Ultra-fast chargers (150 kW and above) increased by 50%, now representing 10% of all fast chargers.
EU highways have over 75% with fast-charging stations every 50 km, compared to less than 50% in the US.
Smart charging and vehicle-to-grid (V2G) integration are gaining traction, but legal frameworks are still evolving.

Electric Heavy-Duty Vehicles

Electric truck sales increased by nearly 80% globally in 2024, reaching 2% of total truck sales.
China led the growth, with 75,000 electric trucks sold, representing over 80% of global sales.
Total cost of ownership for electric heavy-duty trucks is already lower than diesel equivalents in China.
By 2030, electric trucks in Europe and the US are expected to reach par with diesel trucks for long-haul operations.
Hydrogen fuel cell trucks are still less cost-effective than electric trucks.
Mandated rest periods for truck drivers in the EU help maximize charging efficiency, allowing up to 400 km of range with a megawatt charger.

Key Information

The report is complemented by two online tools: the Global EV Data Explorer and the Global EV Policy Explorer.
Policy support, affordable imports, and market dynamics are critical factors influencing EV growth.
Battery cost reductions are driven by competition and lower critical mineral prices.
China continues to be a major player in both manufacturing and exporting EVs.
Interoperability and standardization are essential for EV adoption and grid integration.
Charging infrastructure must expand significantly to support the projected growth of EVs by 2030.
Affordability and cost of ownership are key drivers for EV adoption, especially in emerging markets.

Conclusion

The Global EV Outlook 2025 highlights the accelerating adoption of electric vehicles worldwide, with China leading the charge. Europe and the US are also seeing strong growth, though policy uncertainties and market dynamics may influence future trends. Battery cost reductions and improving charging infrastructure are critical for sustaining EV growth, while affordability and total cost of ownership are key factors for heavy-duty EVs. The report underscores the importance of policy and market support in driving the transition to electric mobility.